Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak

Edwards, Roger; Corfidi, Stephen F.; Thompson, Richard L.; Evans, Jeffry S.; Craven, Jeffrey P.; Racy, Jonathan P.; McCarthy, Daniel W.; Vescio, Michael D.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0544:spcfir>2.0.co;2

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In essence, P i from Eq. (2) can be viewed as the predicted probability of a strong near-surface vortex being present within 25 km of a given point; this forecast methodology is analogous to that used operationally by the Storm Prediction Center in their Day-1 tornado, hail, and wind outlook products, which forecast the probability of an event occurring within a 25-mile radius of a given point (Edwards et al 2002).…”

Section: Forecast Setup and Verification Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System from Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses Using WSR-88D and CASA Radar Data

Snook¹,

Xue²,

Jung³

2012

Monthly Weather Review

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This study examines the ability of a storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to predict precipitation and mesovortices within a tornadic mesoscale convective system that occurred over Oklahoma on 8-9 May 2007, when the model is initialized from ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses including data from four Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) X-band and five Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) S-band radars. Ensemble forecasts are performed and probabilistic forecast products generated, focusing on prediction of radar reflectivity (a proxy of quantitative precipitation) and mesovortices (an indication of tornado potential).Assimilating data from both the CASA and WSR-88D radars for the ensemble and using a mixedmicrophysics ensemble during data assimilation produces the best probabilistic mesovortex forecast. The use of multiple microphysics schemes within the ensemble aims to address at least partially the model physics uncertainty and effectively plays a role of flow-dependent inflation (in precipitation regions) during EnKF data assimilation. The ensemble predicts with high probability (approximately 0.65) the near-surface mesovortex associated with the first of three reported tornadoes. Though a bias toward stronger precipitation is noted in the ensemble forecasts, all experiments produce skillful probabilistic forecasts of radar reflectivity on a 0-3-h time scale as evaluated by multiple probabilistic verification metrics. These results suggest that both the inclusion of CASA radar data and use of a mixed-microphysics ensemble during EnKF data assimilation positively impact the skill of 2-3-h ensemble forecasts of mesovortices, despite having little impact on the quality of precipitation forecasts (analyzed in terms of predicted radar reflectivity), and are important steps toward an operational EnKF-based ensemble analysis and probabilistic forecast system to support convective-scale warn-on-forecast operations.

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Section: Forecast Setup and Verification Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System from Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses Using WSR-88D and CASA Radar Data

Snook¹,

Xue²,

Jung³

2012

Monthly Weather Review

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“…In line with past research, forecasters generally rely on an analysis of vertical wind shear to anticipate the convective mode (Johns and Doswell 1992;McNulty 1995;Moller 2001;Edwards et al 2002). This approach, however, can become complicated as supercells, bow echos, LS MCSs, and PS MCSs are all known to occur within moderate-to-high wind shear environments (e.g., Bluestein and Jain 1985;Bluestein and Weisman 2000;Doswell and Evans 2003;Parker and Johnson 2004a;Parker 2007a,b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

The Initiation and Evolution of Multiple Modes of Convection within a Meso-Alpha-Scale Region

French

Parker

2008

Weather and Forecasting

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On 30 March 2006, a convective episode occurred featuring isolated supercells, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) with parallel stratiform (PS) precipitation, and an MCS with leading stratiform (LS) precipitation. These three distinct convective modes occurred simultaneously across the same region in eastern Kansas. To better understand the mechanisms that govern such events, this study examined the 30 March 2006 episode through a combination of an observation-based case study and numerical simulations. The convective mode was found to be very sensitive to both the environmental thermodynamic and wind shear profiles, with variations in either leading to different convective modes within the numerical simulations. Strong vertical shear and moderate instability led to the development of supercells in western Oklahoma. Strong shear oriented parallel to a surface dryline, coupled with dry air in the middle and upper levels, led to the development of the PS linear MCS in central Kansas. Meanwhile, moderate wind shear coupled with high instability and strong linear forcing led to the development of the LS MCS in eastern Kansas. Absent linear forcing, the moderate shear environment in eastern Kansas was supportive of isolated supercells in the numerical experiments. This suggests that the linear initiation mechanism was key to the development of the LS linear MCS. From the results of this study it is concuded that, for this event, localized environmental variations were largely responsible for the eventual convective mode, with the method of storm initiation having an impact only within the weaker shear environment of eastern Kansas.

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“…tornado outbreak (Edwards et al 2002). The forecasters on 3 May observed considerably stronger winds at the Tucumcari, New Mexico, profiler site than were forecasted by the models.…”

mentioning

confidence: 75%

The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting

Benjamin¹,

Schwartz²,

Szoke³

et al. 2004

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak

Cited by 17 publications

References 20 publications

Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System from Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses Using WSR-88D and CASA Radar Data

Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System from Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses Using WSR-88D and CASA Radar Data

The Initiation and Evolution of Multiple Modes of Convection within a Meso-Alpha-Scale Region

The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting

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