Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow for hazard assessment along the underground infrastructures in Milan (northern Italy)

Colombo, L.; Gattinoni, Paola; Scesi, Laura

doi:10.1016/j.tust.2018.05.007

Cited by 24 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The probability distribution of the collected rainfall data has been compared with the theoretical one [43] in order to verify whether, as expected, the data could be represented by a Gaussian distribution (Figure 10b). The slight disagreement between the data and theoretical curve occurs just in the tails of the distribution (representative only of the extreme values) and could be considered acceptable for the purposes of this analysis.…”

Section: Stochastic Analysismentioning

confidence: 89%

“…The action of pumping wells close to the areas that mainly experienced the flooding problem could thus be an effective system to keep groundwater levels under control and to avoid the repetition of such a phenomenon. The hydrogeological study and the model runs demonstrated that the reason for the 2014 flooding was mainly due to the concurrence of three causes: (1) the hydrogeological structure of the area recognized as a stagnation zone, (2) the groundwater rising-which has been happening for several years in this area and generally in Lombardy [43,45]-and (3) the abnormal quantity of rainfall that occurred in 2014 (100-years return period).…”

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising

et al. 2018

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On November 2014, the Municipality of Grandate, near Lake Como, had to deal with a great emergency that was caused by the flooding of factory undergrounds. The authors realized a hydrogeological study to understand the causes of groundwater flooding and to prepare a pre-feasibility study concerning possible actions for groundwater control. The hydrogeological structure is rather complex and required time-consuming reconstruction of the conceptual site model. A transient numerical model was developed to analyse the system behaviour in different scenarios. The flow model was calibrated in a steady and unsteady-state using the automatic calibration code Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST). The study demonstrated that the reason for floods was mainly due to the concurrence of three causes: (1) the hydrogeological structure of the area was recognized as a stagnation zone, (2) groundwater rising, and (3) extremely heavy rainfall in 2014. Through the PEST RandPar function, 100 random rainfall scenarios were generated starting from rainfall data for the last 20 years. The model was used to run 100 1-year long simulations considering the probability distribution of recharge related to the 100 randomly generated rainfall scenarios. Through collecting the piezometric heads that resulted from the simulations, monthly probability curves of groundwater exceeding a threshold level were obtained. The results provided an occurrence probability of groundwater level exceeding the underground structures level between 12% and 15%.

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Section: Stochastic Analysismentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising

et al. 2018

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“…M1 and M2 lines were built at first, with a cut and cover method to avoid interrupting the traffic on the main roads [43]. Built during the groundwater drawdown phase, they were not designed with waterproofing systems [41]. M3 line and the underground railway were built in the 1990s: due to their greater depth, they were designed with waterproofing systems.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The city of Milan experienced a strong groundwater table rise in the last few decades [40]. As numerical groundwater flow modelling is the primary tool for evaluating the interactions between groundwater and underground infrastructures [34], different 3D models have been realized for the urban area of Milan [41][42][43]. Among the underground infrastructures listed above, all these numerical models focused only on the subway lines: interactions between groundwater and car parks were not evaluated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 3D Geodatabase for Urban Underground Infrastructures: Implementation and Application to Groundwater Management in Milan Metropolitan Area

Sartirana¹,

Rotiroti²,

Zanotti³

et al. 2020

IJGI

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The recent rapid increase in urbanization has led to the inclusion of underground spaces in urban planning policies. Among the main subsurface resources, a strong interaction between underground infrastructures and groundwater has emerged in many urban areas in the last few decades. Thus, listing the underground infrastructures is necessary to structure an urban conceptual model for groundwater management needs. Starting from a municipal cartography (Open Data), thus making the procedure replicable, a GIS methodology was proposed to gather all the underground infrastructures into an updatable 3D geodatabase (GDB) for the metropolitan city of Milan (Northern Italy). The underground volumes occupied by three categories of infrastructures were included in the GDB: (a) private car parks, (b) public car parks and (c) subway lines and stations. The application of the GDB allowed estimating the volumes lying below groundwater table in four periods, detected as groundwater minimums or maximums from the piezometric trend reconstructions. Due to groundwater rising or local hydrogeological conditions, the shallowest, non-waterproofed underground infrastructures were flooded in some periods considered. This was evaluated in a specific pilot area and qualitatively confirmed by local press and photographic documentation reviews. The methodology emerged as efficient for urban planning, particularly for urban conceptual models and groundwater management plans definition.

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“…On the other hand, when the underground structures are in use, the buoyancy force increases with the rise in water head, and the stability of the structures will be affected. If the groundwater head exceeds the safe level, immeasurable geological disasters will occur to the entire underground structure [15,16]. Therefore, it is necessary to study the potential impacts of increasing regional groundwater heads on the geological environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Groundwater Withdrawal and Recharge Affecting Underground Structures in the Shanghai Urban Area

Yang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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In this paper, the hydrogeological features of Quaternary deposits in Shanghai as well as the characteristics of groundwater withdrawal and recharge in urban areas are investigated. One phreatic aquifer and five confined aquifers (AqI to AqV) are present in Shanghai, and these aquifers are separated by five aquitards. Groundwater withdrawal from confined aquifers has resulted in land subsidence in Shanghai. To control land subsidence, the groundwater withdrawal volume has been decreased, and the groundwater recharge volume has been increased since 1965. Correspondingly, the pressure head in confined aquifers has risen. The groundwater head increases in shallow aquifers may impact underground structures and lead to the following issues: i) an increased risk of water in-rushing hazards caused by confined water pressure during structural excavations and ii) an increased instability risk caused by groundwater buoyancy. Both excavation anti-uprush and underground structure anti-floating are discussed in this paper. Based on the risk possibilities, the anti-uprush of the excavation is divided into six regions, and the structural anti-floating is divided into five regions in urban areas. To avoid geohazards caused by the rise in groundwater head, real-time monitoring of the pressure head in AqII is recommended.

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Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow for hazard assessment along the underground infrastructures in Milan (northern Italy)

Cited by 24 publications

References 20 publications

Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising

Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising

A 3D Geodatabase for Urban Underground Infrastructures: Implementation and Application to Groundwater Management in Milan Metropolitan Area

Investigation of Groundwater Withdrawal and Recharge Affecting Underground Structures in the Shanghai Urban Area

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