Stochastic modelling of electric vehicle behaviour to estimate available energy storage in parking lots

Review of Fast Charging for Electrified Transport: Demand, Technology, Systems, and Planning

“…Another study, based on 75,000 trips in northwest USA, estimated that if all vehicles were electric then there would be 5000 fast charging sessions per day per million EVs, that the peak demand for fast charging services would occur between 15:00 and 19:00 on weekdays, and that fast charging at 32 km/min (or 400 kW) would be required to satisfy 80% of journeys [30]. Similarly, travel survey data together with parking lot occupancy data can be used to estimate the demand and opportunities for provision of charging services in car parks [55].…”

“…Monte Carlo modelling can be used to introduce random variation into the EV driving and/or charging patterns derived using the methods above, thereby providing more realistic results [65][66][67][68][69]. To simplify further analysis and guide design, the results can be represented stochastically, i.e., in terms of a characteristic probability distribution function, mean, and variance [31,50,53,55,65,[70][71][72][73][74][75]. (iii) Agent-based computer simulations of EV travel and charging patterns attempt to predict the value of key parameters, such as charging time, location, and the associated impacts on the electricity grid, and to test the sensitivity of those parameters to factors such as the mix of EVs and charging options, the topology and scale of the road and electricity networks, driver behaviours, the cost to charge, and various other factors of interest [53,[58][59][60][61].…”

“…Monte Carlo modelling can be used to introduce random variation into the EV driving and/or charging patterns derived using the methods above, thereby providing more realistic results [65][66][67][68][69]. To simplify further analysis and guide design, the results can be represented stochastically, i.e., in terms of a characteristic probability distribution function, mean, and variance [31,50,53,55,65,[70][71][72][73][74][75].…”