Stochastic, Empirically Informed Model of Landscape Dynamics and Its Application to Deforestation Scenarios

Abstract

Land change including deforestation undermines the sustainability of the environment.Using data on 1992-2015 pattern change in over 1.7 million mesoscale landscapes worldwide we developed a stochastic model of long-term landscape dynamics. The model suggests that observed heterogeneous landscapes are short-lived stages in a transition between quasi-stable homogeneous landscapes of different themes. As a case study we used Monte Carlo simulations based on our model to derive a probability distribution for evolutionary scenarios of landscapes that undergo a forest-to-agriculture transit, a prevalent element of deforestation. Results of simulations show that most likely and the fastest deforestation scenario is through the sequence of highly aggregated forest/agriculture mosaics with a decreasing share of the forest. Simulations also show that once forest share drops below 50% the remainder of the transit is rapid. This suggests that possible conservation policy is to protect mesoscale tracts of land before the forest share drops below 50%. Plain Language SummaryLand change across the world undermines the sustainability of the environment. Understanding the dynamics of landscape change would help to find trade-offs between the development and sustainability of the environment. We developed a data-driven model capable of providing plausible scenarios of long-term evolution of landscapes. Using this model, we proposed a general principle of landscape evolution: heterogeneous landscapes are short-lived stages in transit between two homogeneous landscapes of different land cover. As a case study we applied our model to identify the most likely scenarios of the forest-to-agriculture transit, a dominant source of deforestation. The model suggests that scenarios of the forest-to-agriculture transits that proceed through a sequence of aggregated mosaics are more frequent and more damaging to an environment than transits proceeding through a sequence of disaggregated mosaics. It also suggests that preserving mesoscale (∼100 km 2 ) tracts of land before they lose 50% of forest share may be a good conservation strategy.

Multiple Climate Change-Driven Tipping Points for Coastal Systems

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Phylogeny and biogeography of Sumatra´s cloud forest lizards of the genus Dendragama and status of Acanthosaura schneideri

“…Deforestation is extending into highland areas that encompass remaining patches of D. schneideri habitat. Many forested areas have already been diminished beyond macroecological tipping points (Nowosad et al 2019) and the ecological ramifications could cascade throughout the remaining cloud forest habitat.…”

The problem of rational use and protection of agricultural land

“…Considering the period 2010-2020, we can say that the area of agricultural land has decreased by almost a third. The share of these lands in the structure of the land fund also decreased (from 37.3 % to 23.6 %) [1,2,3].…”