Steep Increase in Best‐Practice Cohort Life Expectancy

Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.; Jdanov, Dmitri A.; Andreev, Evgeny; Vaupel, James W.

doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00428.x

Cited by 77 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Most recently, Shkolnikov et al (2011) extended the research of Oeppen and Vaupel (2002) and found that best-practice female life expectancy increased linearly from the 1870 through the 1920 cohorts by an average of 0.43 years annually. Based on observed data combined with a projection, best-practice life expectancy continued to grow through the 1950 cohort at an identical pace.…”

Section: The Mortality and Life Expectancy Transitionmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…The data assembled and analyzed in this paper come from the following sources: Festy (1979), archives of the Observatiore Démographique Européen (2012), Sardon (1991), the Human Fertility Database (2016), the Human Mortality Database (2016), Shkolnikov et al (2011), Heuser (1976, Hamilton andCosgrove (2010 and2012), Myrskylä et al (2013), Sobotka (2016), Spéder (2016), Frejka et al (2010) and personal communications from Puur (2016), Stankuniene (2016), Zeman (2016), and Zakharov (2008 and.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective

Frejka¹

2016

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The principal focus of this paper is to analyze the fertility transition of the 19 th to early 21 st centuries with cohort fertility measures, and a discussion of key societal conditions shaping the transition. This new approach and procedure reveals that there were four different fertility transition pathways. Arguably equally important is the finding that thus far the demographic transition has not resulted in an equilibrium of relatively stable low mortality and stable low fertility. Early in the 21 st century mortality is continuing to decline steadily, fertility is generally below replacement, and fertility trends are in a flux with a tendency towards further declines. The four types of fertility transition patterns were: a. The "Western" distinguished by major cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) fluctuations; b. The Central and East European characterized by a stable CTFR band around 2.0 births per woman in the 1920s to 1950s birth cohorts; c. The Southern European characterized by a relatively stable secular CTFR decline; d. The East and South-East Asian characterized by rapidly declining CTFRs starting as late as in the middle of the 20 th century. In all four fertility transition pathways almost all CTFRs were below replacement in the youngest cohorts born in the 1960s and early 1970s ending their childbearing early in the 21 st century. The higher CTFRs, mostly between 1.7 and 2.0 births per woman, were in the "Western" populations, the lowest of 1.2 to 1.6 in East and South-East Asia. The exploration of societal conditions shaping mortality and fertility trends confirm Notestein's conclusions formulated 70 years ago (Notestein 1945 and1953). This investigation has shown that it was a complex combination of "technological, social, economic, and political developments," and also of cultural and ideational effects -revealed by subsequent research, especially of Coale (1973) as well as of Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa (1986) -which shape mortality and fertility trends. Furthermore, Notestein observed that it is "impossible to be precise about the various causal factors" generating mortality and fertility trends. Primary causal factors alternated between economic, social, political, policy and other factors.

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Section: The Mortality and Life Expectancy Transitionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective

Frejka¹

2016

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“…Rapidly decreasing mortality rates amongst children in the first half of the 20 th century, and amongst older adults in the second half, have meant that period life expectancy at birth has increased from age 50 in 1900 to over age 80 in 2010 in Sweden, and very similar improvements have been observed across Western Europe, North America and Japan [25–27]. Improvements in cohort life expectancy have been even more dramatic [28]. Other health-related improvements documented over the course of the 20 th century include steady increases in population-level cognitive ability [29] and height [30].…”

Section: Benefits Associated With Older Age Parenthoodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advantages of later motherhood

2017

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BackgroundIn high-income countries childbearing has been increasingly postponed since the 1970s and it is crucial to understand the consequences of this demographic shift. The literature has tended to characterize later motherhood as a significant health threat for children and parents.ObjectivesWe contribute to this debate by reviewing recent evidence suggesting that an older maternal age can also have positive effects.MaterialsLiterature linking the age at parenthood with the sociodemographic characteristics of the parents, with macrolevel interactions, and with subjective well-being.MethodsComprehensive review of the existing literature.ResultsRecent studies show that there can also be advantages associated with later motherhood. First, whilst in past older mothers had low levels of education and large families, currently older mothers tend to have higher education and smaller families than their younger peers. Consequently, children born to older mothers in the past tended to have worse outcomes than children born to younger mothers, whilst the opposite is true in recent cohorts. Second, postponement of childbearing means that the child is born at a later date and in a later birth cohort, and may benefit from secular changes in the macroenvironment. Evidence shows that when the positive trends in the macroenvironment are strong they overweigh the negative effects of reproductive ageing. Third, existing studies show that happiness increases around and after childbirth among older mothers, whereas for younger mothers the effect does not exist or is short-lived.ConclusionThere are important sociodemographic pathways associated with postponement of childbearing which might compensate or even more than compensate for the biological disadvantages associated with reproductive ageing.

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“…In particular, life expectancy is rising rapidly in most countries (United Nations 2013) and there is no sign of an upper limit to life (Bongaarts 2006;National Research Council 2000;Oeppen and Vaupel 2002;Shkolnikov et al 2011;Wilmoth 1997). It is also understood that countries need not move through their mortality and epidemiological transitions in a linear fashion, because temporary reversals are not uncommon (e.g., the HIV/ AIDS epidemic in Africa and the health crisis accompanying the breakup of the Soviet Union).…”

Section: John Bongaartsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Causes of Death in Low‐Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections

Bongaarts

2014

Population & Development Rev

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This study examines the potential role that information about trends in causes of death could have in improving projections of mortality in low‐mortality countries. The article first summarizes overall trends in mortality by cause since the middle of the twentieth century. Special attention is given to the crucial impact of the smoking epidemic on mortality and on cause‐of‐death patterns. The article then discusses the implications for projections and reaches two conclusions. First, mortality projections can be improved by taking into account the distorting effects of smoking. Mortality attributable to smoking has risen in the past but has now leveled off or declined, thus boosting improvements in life expectancy. Second, making cause‐specific projections is not likely to be helpful. Trends in specific medical causes of death have exhibited discontinuities in the past, and future trends are therefore difficult to predict.

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Steep Increase in Best‐Practice Cohort Life Expectancy

Cited by 77 publications

References 32 publications

The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective

The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective

Advantages of later motherhood

Trends in Causes of Death in Low‐Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections

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