1997
DOI: 10.1007/s00585-997-0719-5
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Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844-1993)

Abstract: Abstract. A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the ®rst, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844±1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868± 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844± 1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily meas… Show more

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Cited by 23 publications
(25 citation statements)
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“…One can therefore assign accurate probabilities to flares and storms for only the lower energies where the number of observed events is statistically significant. Willis et al [1997] have applied extreme-value statistics to the first, second, and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for 14 solar cycles (1844-1993) using the daily aa index. They predict a 99% probability that the daily aa index will satisfy the condition aa < 550 for the largest geomagnetic storm in the next 100 solar cycles.…”
Section: What Is the Probability Of Occurrence Of Supermagnetic Stormmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…One can therefore assign accurate probabilities to flares and storms for only the lower energies where the number of observed events is statistically significant. Willis et al [1997] have applied extreme-value statistics to the first, second, and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for 14 solar cycles (1844-1993) using the daily aa index. They predict a 99% probability that the daily aa index will satisfy the condition aa < 550 for the largest geomagnetic storm in the next 100 solar cycles.…”
Section: What Is the Probability Of Occurrence Of Supermagnetic Stormmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Love (jlove@usgs.gov) The aa index has been widely used in the analysis of a number of inter-related issues, including: (1) magnetic-storm occurrence statistics and time-series analysis (Courtillot et al, 1977;Gonzalez et al, 1990;Willis et al, 1997), (2) spaceweather hazards (Boteler et al, 1998;Thomson et al, 2010), (3) solar-terrestrial interaction (Russell, 1975;Legrand and Simon, 1989;Pulkkinen et al, 2001;Lockwood, 2005), (4) solar activity and its prediction (Thompson, 1993;Hathaway et al, 1999;Fröhlich and Lean, 2004), (5) terrestrial climate change (Cliver et al, 1998;Friis-Christensen, 2001; Le Mouël et al, 2005), (6) atmospheric ozone depletion (Jarvis, 2005), and (7) cosmic rays and atmospheric radionuclide production (Stuiver and Quay, 1980;Beer et al, 1990).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Beginning with Siscoe (1976), extreme value statistics have been used to model the intensity of large geomagnetic storms (e.g., Silbergleit, 1997;Willis et al, 1997). As described below, in these analyses, extreme value distributions of the Gumbel type are fit to measures of the intensity of the most intense geomagnetic storms that occurred in each of the recent solar cycles.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%