The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26:180-184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record.

When wind speeds are 2–10 m s −1 , reflective contrasts in the ocean surface make oil slicks visible to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) under all sky conditions. Neural network analysis of satellite SAR images quantified the magnitude and distribution of surface oil in the Gulf of Mexico from persistent, natural seeps and from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) discharge. This analysis identified 914 natural oil seep zones across the entire Gulf of Mexico in pre‐2010 data. Their ∼0.1 µm slicks covered an aggregated average of 775 km 2 . Assuming an average volume of 77.5 m 3 over an 8–24 h lifespan per oil slick, the floating oil indicates a surface flux of 2.5–9.4 × 10 4 m 3 yr −1 . Oil from natural slicks was regionally concentrated: 68%, 25%, 7%, and <1% of the total was observed in the NW, SW, NE, and SE Gulf, respectively. This reflects differences in basin history and hydrocarbon generation. SAR images from 2010 showed that the 87 day DWH discharge produced a surface‐oil footprint fundamentally different from background seepage, with an average ocean area of 11,200 km 2 (SD 5028) and a volume of 22,600 m 3 (SD 5411). Peak magnitudes of oil were detected during equivalent, ∼14 day intervals around 23 May and 18 June, when wind speeds remained <5 m s −1 . Over this interval, aggregated volume of floating oil decreased by 21%; area covered increased by 49% ( p < 0.1), potentially altering its ecological impact. The most likely causes were increased applications of dispersant and surface burning operations.

Oceanographic regimes on the continental shelf display a great range in the time scales of physical exchange, biochemical processes and trophic transfers. The close surface-to-seabed physical coupling at intermediate scales of weeks to months means that the open ocean simplification to a purely pelagic food web is inadequate. Top-down trophic depictions, starting from the fish populations, are insufficient to constrain a system involving extensive nutrient recycling at lower trophic levels and subject to physical forcing as well as fishing. These pelagicbenthic interactions are found on all continental shelves but are particularly important on the relatively shallow Georges Bank in the northwest Atlantic. We have generated budgets for the 1 lower food web for three physical regimes (well mixed, transitional and stratified) and for three seasons (spring, summer and fall/winter). The calculations show that vertical mixing and lateral exchange between the three regimes are important for zooplankton production as well as for nutrient input. Benthic suspension feeders are an additional critical pathway for transfers to higher trophic levels. Estimates of production by mesozooplankton, benthic suspension feeders and deposit feeders, derived primarily from data collected during the GLOBEC years of 1995-1999, provide input to an upper food web. Diets of commercial fish populations are used to calculate food requirements in three fish categories, planktivores, benthivores and piscivores, for four decades, 1963-2002, between which there were major changes in the fish communities.Comparisons of inputs from the lower web with fish energetic requirements for plankton and benthos indicate that we obtained reasonable agreement for the last three decades, 1973 to 2002.However, for the first decade, the fish food requirements were significantly less than the inputs. This decade, 1963This decade, -1972, corresponds to a period characterized by a strong Labrador Current and lower nitrate levels at the shelf edge, demonstrating how strong bottom-up physical forcing may determine overall fish yields.

Large and growing segments of the U.S. population consume seafood or engage in marine recreation. These activities provide significant benefits but also bring risk of exposure to marine borne illness. To manage these risks, it is important to understand the incidence and cost of marine borne disease. We review the literature and surveillance/monitoring data to determine the annual incidence of disease and health consequences due to marine borne pathogens from seafood consumption and beach recreation in the United States. Using this data, we employ a cost-of-illness model to estimate economic impacts. Our results suggest that health consequences due to marine borne pathogens in the United States have annual costs on the order of $900 million. This includes $350 million due to pathogens and marine toxins specifically identified as causing food-borne disease, an estimated $300 million due to seafood borne disease with unknown etiology, $30 million from direct exposure to Vibrio vulnificus, V. parahaemolyticus and V. alginolyticus, and $300 million due to gastrointestinal illness from beach recreation. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the degree of underreporting of certain pathogen-specific acute marine-related illnesses, the conservative assumptions we have used in constructing our estimate suggest that it should be considered a lower bound on true costs.

Abstract:Human respiratory and digestive illnesses can be caused by exposures to brevetoxins from blooms of the marine alga Karenia brevis, also known as Florida red tide (FRT). K. brevis requires macro-nutrients to grow; although the sources of these nutrients have not been resolved completely, they are thought to originate both naturally and anthropogenically. The latter sources comprise atmospheric depositions, industrial effluents, land runoffs, or submerged groundwater discharges. To date, there has been only limited research on the extent of human health risks and economic impacts due to FRT. We hypothesized that FRT blooms were associated with increases in the numbers of emergency room visits and hospital inpatient admissions for both respiratory and digestive illnesses. We sought to estimate these relationships and to calculate the costs of associated adverse health impacts. We developed environmental exposure-response models to test the effects of FRT blooms on human health, using data from diverse sources. We estimated the FRT bloom-associated illness costs, using extant data and parameters from the literature.When controlling for resident population, a proxy for tourism, and seasonal and annual effects, we found that increases in respiratory and digestive illnesses can be explained by FRT blooms.Specifically, FRT blooms were associated with human health and economic effects in older cohorts (≥ 55 years of age) in six southwest Florida counties. Annual costs of illness ranged from $60,000 to $700,000 annually, but these costs could exceed $1.0 million per year for severe, long-lasting FRT blooms, such as the one that occurred during 2005. Assuming that the average annual illness costs of FRT blooms persist into the future, using a discount rate of 3%, the capitalized costs of future illnesses would range between $2-24 million.3

Species in community food webs are commonly aggregated or lumped on the basis of overlap in predators and prey. This note reports an unexpected result of lumping species in observed food webs and simulated food webs. The main result is that it is much easier to lump species in observed webs than in simulated webs. The reason is that there is much more overlap in predators and prey for species in observed webs than in simulated webs. This points to a fundamental deficiency in web assembly models that assume a random distribution of links.

Summary 1.One option in managing introductions of non-native pest species is to eradicate the introduced species by trapping or otherwise removing individuals. A central issue in undertaking such a programme is deciding when it is reasonable to terminate the programme because all individuals have been removed. This decision requires knowledge of the probability that complete eradication has been achieved.2. An objective Bayesian method is presented to determine the probability that all individuals of an introduced species have been removed. The method is based on the excess trapping times of individuals beyond a specified threshold, assuming a generalized Pareto distribution for excess trapping time. 3.The method is applied to data from an unsuccessful trapping programme of the Asian musk shrew Suncus murinus on the Mauritian island of Ile aux Aigrettes. The results suggest that, had the method been used, managers would have realized that the probability of complete eradication was not high and premature termination could have been avoided. 4. Synthesis and applications . A central issue facing the manager of an eradication programme for an introduced or pest species is deciding when it is reasonable to terminate the programme because all individuals have been removed. If termination is premature, the programme will fail; if termination is delayed beyond the point of eradication, unnecessary costs will be incurred. The statistical method described here for calculating the probability of complete eradication based on the record of removals provides information that is useful either in an informal assessment of progress or in more formal decision making regarding termination.

The very large changes observed within marine communities, owing to excessive harvesting, have been attributed to switches between alternative stable states. Correspondingly large reductions in overall fishing effort are usually difficult to implement. For such 'nonlinear' ecosystems, introducing large marine protected areas, with low to zero harvesting, but without reduction in overall fishing effort, can give a marked increase in total yield of the depleted stocks. These increases, however, are still less than can be achieved by reducing fishing effort.