Abstract. A thermal model coupled to statistics is proposed based on damage initiation by heating of sizedistributed inclusions to a critical temperature. The data points of damage probability on the surface of fused silica containing different levels of impurities are measured. By linking the contents of various impurities measured to the calculation for damage probability, the influence of various impurities on damage probability is obtained. The purpose of the work is to present a more thorough analysis of the correlation of subsurface impurities to laser damage probability.