Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

Abstract

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO(2) may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in Europe: observed trends and atmospheric forcing

“…van Leeuwen et al 2004, Santos et al 2011, can directly and indirectly affect vine physiology, growth and stages of development (Magalhães 2008). In fact, regardless of all technical and scientific achievements (e.g.…”

“…Furthermore, local and regional atmospheric forcing have an important influence on grapevine phenology (Jones & Davis 2000a), yield (Bindi et al 1996, Santos et al 2011) and wine quality (Rodó & Comín 2000, Esteves & Orgaz 2001, Grifoni et al 2006, Orlandini et al 2009) in different European regions. As an illustration, high correlations between grapevine yield and mean large-scale atmospheric patterns in March, May and June (from budburst to berry set) were found for the Douro Region, Portugal (Santos et al 2011). Similar results were obtained for Bordeaux, France, where enhanced frequency of anticyclonic systems (warm and dry conditions) during flowering and berry set promotes higher wine production.…”

Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe

“…Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is the leading factor for grapevine yield and quality (van Leeuwen et al 2004, Santos et al 2010) and for grapevine global geographical distribution (Jones 2006). In effect, grapevines have very specific climatic requirements: they are a heat-demanding crop, needing proper high radiation intensities and temperatures, not only during their vegetative growth and development, but also for berry ripening, since they are also highly sensitive to late frost occurrences (e.g.…”

Benefit of ancillary data acquired at the cooperative level to study soil type and climatic zone influence on berry composition: a case study in Rioja appellation

“…The timing and duration of the grapevine phenological stages are deeply tied to the prevailing atmospheric conditions (Jones and Davis, 2000), which also contribute to variability in grapevine yield (Santos et al, 2011), wine production and quality (Fraga et al, 2014). Sabon et al (2002) observed that wines produced in the areas furthest to the south of the Valley of Rhone, where maturation occurs early, had high aromatic composition, low total acidity and high potential alcohol in their must.…”