Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe

Abstract

Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions. KEY WORDS: Vitis vinifera L. · Viticultural zoning · Bioclimatic indices · Regional climate change · Europe · COSMO-CLM Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 43: [163][164][165][166][167][168][169][170][171][172][173][174][175][176][177] 2010 perennial organs (roots, trunk and canes) for following-year growth (Bates et al. 2002, Field et al. 2009. A 10°C base temperature is the minimum threshold considered necessary for grapevines to initiate their growing cycle (Amerine & Winkler 1944, Winkler et al. 1974. Conversely, extreme heat (e.g. temperatures above 40 to 45°C) may irreversibly impair some physiological processes (Berry & Björkman 1980), thus leading to poor grape yields and quality (Kliewer 1977, Mullins et al. 1992. Furthermore, annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution are also critical. High soil moisture is needed during budburst and shoot and inflorescence development, followed by dry and stable atmospheric conditions from flowering to berry ripening , Nemani et al. 2001, Jones et al. 2005a, Ramos et al. 2008). Due to these selective climatic needs, most wine-producing areas are geographically located within the latitude range of 30 to 50°over the northern hemisphere (e.g. Spellman 1999, Hidalgo 2002, where the warm temperate climates (Kottek et al. 2006), including the Mediterranean type, are typically found. These climates roughly correspond to the belt limited by the 10 to 20°C ann...

Changes in the phenology and composition of wine from Franconia, Germany

“…Several studies have described the impact of climate change on viticulture (Jones & Davis 2000, Duchêne & Schneider 2005, Jorquera-Fontena & Orrego-Verdugo 2010, Malheiro et al 2010, Urhausen et al 2011, since climate is one of the key elements influencing grapevine yield and quality (van Leeuwen et al 2004, Jones et al 2005. In an earlier study of grapevine phenology in Bordeaux, Jones & Davis (2000) observed an advance of phenological stages, a shortening of phenological intervals and an increase in potential wine quality, which a later study confirmed for other European wine regions (Jones et al 2005).…”

“…Due to the absence of gridded daily observations, other climate variables, including growing degree days (Mullins et al 1992), number of days with high temperatures (Jones & Davis 2000, Duchêne et al 2010) and numerous indices (Jones & Davis 2000, Malheiro et al 2010 could not be used in this study. This might result in slightly different results of predictors in our regression models in comparison to other long-term studies.…”

“…Due to the absence of gridded daily observations, other climate variables and temperature derived indices (Duchêne & Schneider 2005, Duchêne et al 2010, Malheiro et al 2010 were not used in this study.…”

“…While the majority of the highest quality wine-producing regions in Western Europe and Germany have benefited from an increase in quality ratings (Malheiro et al 2010), the impact of global warming on Franconian wine and its varietal typicity has received little attention.…”

Large-scale water balance indicators for different pruning dates of tropical wine grape

“…For all these scales, it is becoming more and more important to consider grape site selection, cultural practices, and water management, which are essential for potential adaptations to different climate scenarios (Malheiro et al, 2010;Dunn et al, 2015;Neethling et al, 2015;Tóth & Végvári, 2016).…”