Statistical estimations of the number of future ozone exceedances due to climate change in Europe

Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Tombrou, M.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

doi:10.1002/jgrd.50451

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…In addition to providing meteorological input to drive the GMI CTM, MERRA‐2 is also used to determine the relationships between O 3 and meteorology. Several of the observational networks detailed in section 2.2 lack colocated meteorological observations, and Varotsos et al (2013) commented that lack of colocated O 3 and temperature (or other meteorological) observations necessitates the use of gridded products to examine the relationships between O 3 and meteorology.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface Ozone‐Meteorology Relationships: Spatial Variations and the Role of the Jet Stream

et al. 2020

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We investigate the relationships among summertime ozone (O 3), temperature, and humidity on daily timescales across the Northern Hemisphere using observations and model simulations. Temperature and humidity are significantly positively correlated with O 3 across continental regions in the midlatitudes (∼35-60 • N). Over the oceans, the relationships are consistently negative. For continental regions outside the midlatitudes, the O 3-meteorology correlations are mixed in strength and sign but generally weak. Over some high latitude, low latitude, and marine regions, temperature and humidity are significantly anticorrelated with O 3. Daily variations in transport patterns linked to the position and meridional movement of the jet stream drive the relationships among O 3 , temperature, and humidity. Within the latitudinal range of the jet, there is an increase (decrease) in O 3 , temperature, and humidity over land with poleward (equatorward) movement of the jet, while over the oceans poleward movement of the jet results in decreases of these fields. Beyond the latitudes where the jet traverses, the meridional movement of the jet stream has variable or negligible effects on surface-level O 3 , temperature, and humidity. The O 3-meteorology relationships are largely the product of the jet-induced changes in the surface-level meridional flow acting on the background meridional O 3 gradient. Our results underscore the importance of considering the role of the jet stream and surface-level flow for the O 3-meteorology relationships, especially in light of expected changes to these features under climate change. Plain Language Summary The relationship of ozone (O 3) with meteorological variables such as temperature and humidity at the Earth's surface varies in strength and sign. Some regions, such as continental parts of the midlatitudes, experience increases in O 3 as the temperature or humidity rises. However, this is not the case over the entire Northern Hemisphere. We use detailed computer simulations of atmospheric chemistry to show that these relationships are primarily the result of changes in meteorology, not changes in emissions or chemistry. The relationship between O 3 and meteorological variables is related to the north-south movement of the jet stream, powerful eastward-flowing air currents located near the tropopause that can encircle the hemisphere. Specifically, we find that the jet stream influences the O 3-meteorology relationships due to its effect on the northward and southward advection of O 3 , temperature, and humidity and not due to cyclones and the associated frontal activity, as has been previously suggested. Our results are relevant for understanding the present-day O 3-meteorology relationships and how climate change may impact O 3 pollution.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface Ozone‐Meteorology Relationships: Spatial Variations and the Role of the Jet Stream

et al. 2020

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“…Additionally, a bootstrap method [ Efron and Gong , ; Varotsos et al ., ] is used to estimate the confidence levels of the running correlation between any two time series. To that end, the first time series is correlated to synthetic time series composed by reordering the second time series randomly (but preserving seasonality).…”

Section: Model Description and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual transport variability of Upper Labrador Sea Water at Flemish Cap

Varotsou

Jochumsen

Serra

et al. 2015

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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The transport of Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW) at Flemish Cap (47°N/45°W) is investigated in the period 1960–2009 using the output from an 8 km resolution numerical ocean model. The average model transport of ULSW decreases southward from 6.7 Sv at 53°N to 4.5 Sv at 45°N due to interior pathways. The largest fraction of the total ULSW volume transport goes around Flemish Cap within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC, 72%) but a significant part goes through Flemish Pass (20%). At interannual timescales, the variability at Flemish Pass shows a distinct behavior when compared to the variability in the DWBC and to the upstream fluctuations. A running correlation method is applied to obtain the connection of the transport variability at Flemish Pass with several quantities, representative for different physical mechanisms: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation index, (2) the Ekman transport, (3) the rate of ULSW formation in the Labrador Sea, (4) the position of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) relative to the slope and (5) the averaged transport in the subpolar gyre. Weakened or strengthened transport of ULSW through Flemish Pass coincides with changes of the atmospheric forcing or with changes of the NAC‘s position. Strong meandering of the NAC close to the DWBC reduces the transport off Flemish Cap, and the ULSW flow is “redirected” into the Flemish Pass, enhancing the transport there. In contrast, the transport variability in the DWBC is mainly caused by upstream fluctuations and changes according to the rate of ULSW formation.

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“…One way of addressing regional differences consists of dividing the European domain into regions of coherent spatiotemporal o‐t‐characteristics and patterns, which may be affected by different main drivers under climatic and environmental changes. Regionalizations, comprising the classification of sites and resulting in the spatial division into zones or regions, have been generated in previous studies based on ozone (Boleti et al., 2020 ; Carro‐Calvo et al., 2017 ; Lehman et al., 2004 ; Lyapina et al., 2016 ; Varotsos et al., 2013 ) or temperature (Bador et al., 2015 ; Chidean et al., 2015 ; Scotto et al., 2011 ). However, to the best of our knowledge, a spatial clustering based on both target variables over Europe in order to account for recent and future spatiotemporal variations has not been conducted so far.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Clustering, Statistical Modeling, and Climate Change Projections to Analyze Recent and Future Region‐Specific Compound Ozone and Temperature Burden Over Europe

Jahn

Hertig

2022

GeoHealth

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High ground‐level ozone concentrations and high air temperatures present two health‐relevant natural hazards. The most severe health outcomes are generally associated with concurrent elevated levels of both variables, representing so‐called compound ozone and temperature (o‐t‐) events. These o‐t‐events, their relationship with identified main meteorological and synoptic drivers, as well as ozone and temperature levels themselves and the linkage between both variables, vary temporally and with the location of sites. Due to the serious health burden and its spatiotemporal variations, the analysis of o‐t‐events across the European domain represents the focus of the current work. The main objective is to model and project present and future o‐t‐events, taking region‐specific differences into account. Thus, a division of the European domain into six o‐t‐regions with homogeneous, similar ground‐level ozone and temperature characteristics and patterns built the basis of the study. In order to assess region‐specific main meteorological and synoptic drivers of o‐t‐events, statistical downscaling models were developed for selected representative stations per o‐t‐region. Statistical climate change projections for all central European o‐t‐regions were generated to assess potential frequency shifts of o‐t‐events until the end of the 21st century. The output of eight Earth System Models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project considering SSP245 and SSP370 scenario assumptions was applied. By comparing midcentury (2041–2060) and late century (2081–2100) time slice differences with respect to a historical base period (1995–2014), substantial increases of the health‐relevant compound o‐t‐events were projected across all central European regions.

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Statistical estimations of the number of future ozone exceedances due to climate change in Europe

Cited by 13 publications

References 71 publications

Surface Ozone‐Meteorology Relationships: Spatial Variations and the Role of the Jet Stream

Surface Ozone‐Meteorology Relationships: Spatial Variations and the Role of the Jet Stream

Interannual transport variability of Upper Labrador Sea Water at Flemish Cap

Using Clustering, Statistical Modeling, and Climate Change Projections to Analyze Recent and Future Region‐Specific Compound Ozone and Temperature Burden Over Europe

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