Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021-2050) are analysed using a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum temperatures (approximately 1.3°C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of confidence than those associated with precipitation.

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.

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Abstract. In this study, the impact of global climate change on the temperature and precipitation regime over the island of Cyprus has been investigated. The analysis is based on daily output from a regional climate model (RCM) at a high horizontal resolution (25 km) produced within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project. The control run represents the base period 1961–1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions. Two future periods are studied, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. For the study area and over the study period, an analysis of the changes associated with the temperature regime and the hydrological cycle, such as mean precipitation and drought duration, is presented. Variations in the mean annual and seasonal rainfall are presented. Changes in the number of hot days/warm nights as well as drought duration are also discussed. These changes should be very important to assess future possible water shortages over the island and to provide a basis for associated impacts on the agricultural sector.