Statistical Estimation of the Reproductive Number From Case Notification Data

White, Laura F.; Moser, Carlee; Thompson, Robin N; Pagano, Marcello

doi:10.1093/aje/kwaa211

Cited by 25 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(76 reference statements)

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“…It is therefore representative of the "instantaneous" transmissibility at time . Indeed, ' ( ) is sometimes referred to as the instantaneous reproduction number [25][26][27]. In the absence of vaccination, so that Λ( ) = 0, then ' ( ) is equal to the basic reproduction number, % .…”

Section: Epidemiological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions

Sachak-Patwa

Byrne

Dyson

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Countries around the world have introduced travel restrictions to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. As vaccines are gradually rolled out, attention has turned to when travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be relaxed. Here, using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we develop a mathematical branching process model to assess the risk that, following the removal of NPIs, cases introduced into new locations initiate a local outbreak. Our model accounts for changes in background population immunity due to vaccination. We consider two locations in which the vaccine rollout has progressed quickly – specifically, the Isle of Man (a British crown dependency in the Irish Sea) and the country of Israel. We show that the outbreak risk is unlikely to be eliminated completely when travel restrictions and other NPIs are removed, even once the vaccine programmes in these locations are complete. Specifically, the risk that an imported case initiates an outbreak following the vaccine rollout and removal of NPIs is projected to be 0.373 (0.223,0.477) for the Isle of Man and 0.506 (0.387,0.588) for Israel. Key factors underlying these risks are the potential for transmission even following vaccination, incomplete vaccine uptake, and the recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased transmissibility. Combined, these factors suggest that when travel restrictions are relaxed, it will still be necessary to implement surveillance of incoming passengers to identify infected individuals quickly. This measure, as well as tracing and isolating contacts of detected infected passengers, should remain in place to suppress potential outbreaks until case numbers globally are reduced.

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Section: Epidemiological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions

Sachak-Patwa

Byrne

Dyson

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Instead they provide insight into initial epidemic growth upon invasion (Anderson et al, 2020) and so we do not examine them. Note that all methods we detail in this section assume that the population is well mixed and that contacts are random (White et al, 2020). Next, we clarify how R t and r t are related.…”

Section: Computing Reproduction Numbers and Growth Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?

Parag

Thompson

Donnelly

2021

Preprint

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Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, Rt , is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, Rt encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate, rt , i.e., the rate of change of the log-transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model-agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if and when estimates of rt are more informative than those of Rt . We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding epidemic interventions in real time.

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“…It is therefore representative of the "instantaneous" transmissibility at time . Indeed, ' ( ) is sometimes referred to as the instantaneous reproduction number [23][24][25]. In the absence of vaccination, so that Λ( ) = 0, then ' ( ) is equal to the basic reproduction number, % .…”

Section: Epidemiological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions

Sachak-Patwa

Byrne

Dyson

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Countries around the world have introduced travel restrictions to reduce SARS−CoV−2 transmission. As vaccines are gradually rolled out, attention has turned to when travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be relaxed. Here, using SARS−CoV−2 as a case study, we develop a mathematical branching process model to assess the risk that, following the removal of NPIs, cases introduced into new locations initiate a local outbreak. Our model accounts for changes in background population immunity due to vaccination. We consider two locations in which the vaccine rollout has progressed quickly − specifically, the Isle of Man (a British crown dependency in the Irish Sea) and the country of Israel. We show that the outbreak risk is unlikely to be eliminated completely when travel restrictions and other NPIs are removed, even once the vaccine programmes in these locations are complete. Specifically, the risk that an imported case initiates an outbreak following the vaccine rollout and removal of NPIs is projected to be 0.373 (0.223,0.477) for the Isle of Man and 0.506 (0.387,0.588) for Israel. Key factors underlying these risks are the potential for transmission even following vaccination, incomplete vaccine uptake, and the recent emergence of SARS−CoV−2 variants with increased transmissibility. Combined, these factors suggest that when travel restrictions are relaxed, it will still be necessary to implement surveillance of incoming passengers to identify infected individuals quickly. This measure, as well as tracing and isolating contacts of detected infected passengers, should remain in place to suppress potential outbreaks until case numbers globally are reduced.

show abstract

Statistical Estimation of the Reproductive Number From Case Notification Data

Cited by 25 publications

References 68 publications

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions

Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions

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