Abstract:Countries around the world have introduced travel restrictions to reduce SARS−CoV−2 transmission. As vaccines are gradually rolled out, attention has turned to when travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be relaxed. Here, using SARS−CoV−2 as a case study, we develop a mathematical branching process model to assess the risk that, following the removal of NPIs, cases introduced into new locations initiate a local outbreak. Our model accounts for changes in background population… Show more
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