Stakeholder-Informed Ecosystem Modeling of Ocean Warming and Acidification Impacts in the Barents Sea Region

Abstract

Climate change and ocean acidification are anticipated to alter marine ecosystems, with consequences for the provision of marine resources and ecosystem services to human societies. However, considerable uncertainties about future ecological changes and ensuing socio-economic impacts impede the identification of societal adaptation strategies. In a case study from the Barents Sea and Northern Norwegian Sea region, we integrated stakeholder perceptions of ecological changes and their significance for societies with the current state of scientific knowledge, to investigate the marine-human system under climate change and identify societal adaptation options. Stakeholders were engaged through personal interviews, two local workshops, and a web based survey, identifying the most relevant ecosystem services potentially impacted and developing an integrated system dynamics model which links climate change scenarios to the response of relevant species. Stakeholder perceptions of temperature-dependent multiannual fluctuations of fish stocks, interactions among fish, marine mammal, and seabird populations, and ecological processes such as primary production are represented in the model. The model was used for a discourse-based stakeholder evaluation of potential ecosystem changes under ocean warming and acidification scenarios, identifying shifts in ecosystem service provision and discussing associated societal adaptation options. The results pointed to differences in adaptive capacity among user groups. Small-scale fishers and tourism businesses are potentially more affected by changing spatial distribution and local declines in marine species than industrial fisheries. Changes in biodiversity, especially extinctions of polar species, and ecosystem functioning were a concern from an environmental conservation viewpoint. When considering potential additional impacts of ocean acidification, changes observed in the model projections were more uniformly valued as negative, and associated with an increased potential for conflicts among user groups. The stakeholder-informed ecosystem modeling approach has succeeded in driving a discussion and interchange among stakeholder groups and with scientists, integrating knowledge about climate Koenigstein et al.Stakeholder-Informed Ecosystem Modeling of the Barents Sea change impacts in the social-ecological system and identifying important factors that shape societal responses. The approach can thus serve to improve governance of marine systems by incorporating knowledge about system dynamics and about societal uses and values.

The Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Ecosystems and Reliant Human Communities

“…Losses of marine biodiversity from ocean acidification impacts on marine systems can also affect cultural services (199)(200)(201)(202). Cultural services comprise activities from supporting individual recreational activities to sustaining multi-generational, community-wide religious and cultural identities.…”

“…There is broad agreement that the actual effects and modes of action of ocean acidification and other ocean changes on cultural services are insufficiently understood (203)(204)(205)(206). Encouragingly, however, Koenigstein et al (199) report that human communities recognize the potential implications of lost marine biodiversity, especially regarding extinctions and losses in ecosystem function, and this can spark meaningful, conservation-oriented multi-stakeholder discussions.…”

Geobibliography and Bibliometric Networks of Polar Tourism and Climate Change Research

“…The 84 keywords that were used at least three times in the 93 articles agglomerate into six clusters according to their distances to each other (Figure 3a), yielding 1259 links. The largest cluster with 20 items (red) stems from a wider theme on climate change adaptation of Arctic tourism from all the policy [53,56], community [53,56,71,76,77], business [33,39,53,56,80,101,106], and visitor [38,56] perspectives. Cluster 2 (n: 16, green) covers mostly combined impacts of climate change and polar tourism, with a spatial focus on the Antarctic [41,92,96,109].…”

Growth performance and survival of larval Atlantic herring, under the combined effects of elevated temperatures and CO2

“…Sea surface temperature is projected to increase by at least 1.5°C while seawater pH could decrease by 0.4, when pCO2 levels of ~800 μatm are reached by the year 2100 [ 3 , 4 ]. These environmental changes will likely interact in their effects on fish populations and are therefore of great interest to society due to the socio-economic value of fishing and other ecosystem services [ 5 , 6 ]. The early developmental stages of fish (eggs and larvae) are of particular importance for ecosystems and fisheries since they represent a critical bottleneck for recruitment [ 7 , 8 ].…”