Stages of spatial dispersion of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland in the first six months (4 March-20 September, 2020).

Abstract

The article is a continuation of research published by the author elsewhere (Śleszyński, 2020). The elaboration presents the regularity of spatial distribution of infections during the first six months after the detection of SARS-CoV-2 coronovirus in Poland under strong lockdown conditions. The main aim is to try to determine the basic temporal-spatial patterns and to answer the questions: to what extent the phenomenon was ordered and to what extent it was chaotic, whether there are any particular features of spread, whether the infection is concentrated or dispersed and whether the spreading factors in Poland are similar to those observed in other countries. Day by day data were used according to the counties collected in Rogalski’s team (2020). The data were aggregated to weekly periods (7 days) and then the regularity of spatial distribution was searched for using the cartogram method, time series shifts, rope correlation between the intensity of infections in different periods, Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index (HHI) and cluster analysis. A spatial typology of infection development in the population was also performed. Among other things, it was shown that during the first period (about 100 days after the first case), the infections became more and more spatially concentrated and then dispersed. Differences were also shown in relation to the spread of the infection compared to observations from other countries, i.e. no relation to population density and level of urbanization.

Five waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and green–blue spaces in urban and rural areas in Poland

“…It was the only wave of the pandemic during which the maximum level of deaths (April 29, 2020) was observed earlier than that of cases (June 8, 2020). The analysis of the development of the pandemic in Poland, in spatial terms (in counties), in the first two months was presented by Raciborski et al (2020) and in the first six months by Śleszyński (2021) .…”

Landscape Perception and the Importance of Recreation Areas for Students during the Pandemic Time

“…The first case of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Poland was recorded on 4 March 2020: it was found in a person from Lubuskie Province, western Poland, from where the virus gradually spread to other regions, and eventually to all the provinces [ 89 ]. In the spring of 2020, numerous lockdown restrictions were introduced to stop the pandemic, which led to intensified symptoms of depression and anxiety.…”

Access to healthcare as an important moderating variable for understanding geography of immunity levels for COVID-19 - preliminary insights from Poland

“…The dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 spread vary across the spatial clusters and initial conditions as number of index cases and immunity levels could lead to different phases at the beginning of each wave. We chose the beginning of the 4th wave for epidemiologic indexes (dependent variables): hospitalizations and incidence due to relatively equal distribution of Delta variants across country, when already the wealthier part of population returns from overseas vacations [27], children return to school but before the start of the new academic year (possible movement of population to large cities), in order to avoid some artefacts due to introduction or re-emergence of variants [6,28]. For mortality rates, we decided to take a longer period (up to maximum in incidence of 4th wave), in order to gather enough data.…”