Stability across Cohorts in Divorce Risk Factors

Abstract

Over the past quarter-century, many covariates of divorce have been identified. However, the extent to which the effects of these covariates remain constant across time is not known. In this article, I examine the stability of the effects of a wide range of divorce covariates using a pooled sample of data taken from five rounds of the National Survey of Family Growth. This sample includes consistent measures of important predictors of divorce, covers marriages formed over 35 years he increased prevalence of divorce, combined with its well-known consequences for the well-being of men, women, and children (Amato 2000;Cherlin, Chase-Lansdale, and McRae 1998;McLanahan and Sandefur 1994), has spurred efforts to understand its determinants. Using various methods and data from different historical periods, researchers have linked numerous social, demographic, and economic variables to divorce. DaVanzo and Rahman (1993), Faust and McKibben (1999), and White (1990) reviewed this extensive literature. The list of variables considered is long and the results have varied, but a small number of sociodemographic variables have been linked consistently to the risk of divorce. These variables include age at marriage, education, premarital births and conception, religion, parental divorce, and race.Unfortunately, little research has attempted to ascertain whether the determinants of divorce are invariant across historical time even though there are reasonable theoretical, albeit slimmer empirical, grounds for expecting the effects of various predictors of divorce to vary across time. In my study, I tested the equality of effects across time using a pooled sample of data taken from five rounds of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG); the NSFG included consistent measures of important predictors of divorce, covered marriages formed over 35 years , and spanned substantial historical variation in the overall risk of marital dissolution. With the exception of race, I found that the effects of the major sociodemographic predictors of divorce do not vary across time. These results indicate that the effects of historical period have been pervasive, at least over the period covered by this research. WHY SHOULD EFFECTS VARY OVER HISTORICAL TIME?There is no generally accepted theory of divorce, although the predominant perspectives all rely on some notion of the exchange of expressive and instrumental goods and services between husbands and wives (Becker 1991;Becker, Landes, and Michael 1977;Oppenheimer 1994Oppenheimer , 1997Ruggles 1997). The assumption is that marriage is beneficial because mutual interdependence generated by exchange increases the well-being of each *Jay D. Teachman, Department of Sociology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9081; E-mail: teachman@cc.wwu.edu. I thank Kyle Crowder, Mick Cunningham, and the anonymous reviewers for their many helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article.

Change and Stability in the Social Determinants of Divorce: A Comparison of Marriage Cohorts in the Netherlands

“…We estimate trends in the determinants of divorce by comparing marriage cohorts (for a similar approach, see Teachman, 2002). To make a meaningful breakdown in marriage cohorts, we first look at the trend.…”

“…We first discuss some results for the United States. In one of the more comprehensive analyses of trends, Teachman (2002) Hoem (1997). Using Swedish register data and comparing birth cohorts of married women between 1944 and 1964, Hoem finds that in the 'low'-divorce era, educational groups did not differ in their risk of divorce (Hoem, 1997).…”

Les unions mixtes sont-elles plus fragiles que les unions entre partenaires de même origine ethnique? Nouveaux résultats pour la Grande-Bretagne

“…This trend has largely been attributed to the increase in the economic independence of women, changes in public attitudes toward divorce, and the liberalisation of marriage legislation (Becker 1981;Kierman and Meuller 1999;Thornton 1989;Trent and South 1989). Certain factors, such as getting married at a young age and premarital birth, are positively associated with dissolution, while higher income couples and those with higher qualifications have a lower risk of divorce (Chan and Halpin 2003;Kierian and Meuller 1999;Teachman 2002). Ethnicity is also associated with the risk of separation; studies from both the US and Britain find that Black populations have higher risks of divorce than Whites, while Asians usually have lower risks (Berrington 1996;Fu 2006;Heaton and Albrecht 1991;Teachman 2002).…”

“…Certain factors, such as getting married at a young age and premarital birth, are positively associated with dissolution, while higher income couples and those with higher qualifications have a lower risk of divorce (Chan and Halpin 2003;Kierian and Meuller 1999;Teachman 2002). Ethnicity is also associated with the risk of separation; studies from both the US and Britain find that Black populations have higher risks of divorce than Whites, while Asians usually have lower risks (Berrington 1996;Fu 2006;Heaton and Albrecht 1991;Teachman 2002). However, studies on union dissolution have generally ignored the effects of ethnic mixing in households.…”

'The Proper Age for Parenthood' and Second Birth Rates in Europe

“…A young age at marriage has consistently been linked to higher divorce risks (Teachman, 2002). If young mothers are hence more likely to separate from their partner after the first birth, they could also be less likely to proceed to parity two, unless they find new partners and have a second child with them.…”