SST Warming in Recent Decades in the Gulf Stream Extension Region and Its Impact on Atmospheric Rivers

Wu, Yifei; Jia, Yunfeng; Ji, Rui; Zhang, Jie

doi:10.3390/atmos11101109

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…It can be observed that, along the upper stream of the GS extension, the SST gradient was smaller in NAT+ years (Figure 2b). The profile of the zonal-averaged (between 65° W and 55° W) SST gradient shows an increase in ocean front between 40° N and 42° N during NAT− years, which agrees with the finding in Wu et al [18]. The effect of this SST gradient variation on ARs is discussed in Section 4.…”

Section: Decadal Variation Of Ars In Relation To the Natsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Second, from the EOF1 distribution of NAT mode (Figure 1b), we noted a positive SST signal spreading along the GS ocean front. This suggests a difference in the GS front between the two NAT modes, which may also induce the response of ARs in the North Atlantic, as suggested in the work conducted by Wu et al [18]. The ARs induce extreme rain during landfall in western Europe; for example, the 95% extreme rainfall in Norway and the UK shows much higher and lower occurrence tendency during NAT+ and NAT− modes (Figure 1d), respectively.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

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Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode

Zhang

Jia

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) is the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the decadal time scale. Although the NAT is forced by North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), it also has an effect on the atmosphere; for example, the early winter tripole SST signal can influence storm tracks in March. As the NAT not only changes the baroclinicity of the lower layer but also modifies the moisture being released into the atmosphere, we surmise that the NAT has an impact on moisture transport and atmospheric rivers in the decadal time scale. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, the decadal variations in Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the North Atlantic in boral winter in relation to NAT phases were studied. During the positive NAT phase, the positive SST in the central and western North Atlantic increases the humidity and causes an anticyclonic wind response, which enhances the northeastward transport of moisture. As a result, ARs tend to be longer and transport more moisture toward northwestern Europe. This causes enhanced extreme rain in the UK and Norway. During the negative NAT phase, the positive SST anomalies in the south and east of the North Atlantic provide more moisture, induce a southward shift of the ARs and enhance extreme rain in the Iberian Peninsula. The Gulf Stream (GS) front is stronger during the negative NAT phase, increasing the frequency of the atmospheric front and enlarging the rain rate in ARs.

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Section: Decadal Variation Of Ars In Relation To the Natsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode

Zhang

Jia

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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“…The most consistent statistically significant increasing trends are for ARs associated with mature cyclones in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions, which position the most intense IVT over the southeast US and Tennessee River Valley, and are rooted in the Gulf of Mexico. Trends are also consistent with coastal cyclones over the northeast US with the most intense IVT transiting the Mid‐Atlantic and Northeast US Recent studies have found similar increasing trends for IVT and moisture transport in the study domain which can feedback on the AR metrics associated with some Nor'easter forced ARs (Teale & Robinson, 2022; Y. Wu et al., 2020).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends

et al. 2022

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An atmospheric river (AR) is the primary moisture transport forcing in the Western United States, making ARs the predominant producer of extreme precipitation events in this region. A growing body of evidence suggests similar impacts for the Central and Eastern US This study determines the most prominent types of ARs in the Central and Eastern US study domain through the implementation of a machine learning methodology. Self‐organizing maps (SOMs) are leveraged to determine what “flavors” of ARs exist in the study domain. Four atmospheric river detection criteria are utilized to investigate the variability AR types. Mann‐Kendall trend analyses on AR strength and size are produced to evaluate changes over the study period. The results confirm extratropical cyclones as the most common driver of ARs, however, limited kinematic forcing can also instigate the development of AR events. Results show coastal cyclones and lee‐side cyclones are responsible for producing the strongest ARs. The trend analysis results suggest that ARs associated with Nor'easters and ARs originating in the Gulf of Mexico are exhibiting increasing trends in intensity and/or size. Increasing moisture transport by mature cyclones across the Central and Eastern US have important implications for flooding in highly populated corridors. Areas of concern include the Northeast and Southeast US, while localized enhancement of rainfall is seen along the eastern and southern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. In addition to the physical findings, this research highlights the importance and sensitivity of statistically significant results to the specific atmospheric river detection criteria that was leveraged.

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“…The asymmetric atmospheric responses to warm and cold eddies result in net moisture transport above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the moisture entering above the PBL interacts with upper level higher momentum within the extratropical cyclones, favorable for AR genesis and subsequent downstream water vapor transport. Other studies have also shown that the GS front can increase moisture availability and affect the frequency and intensity of landfalling ARs over Western Europe (Wu et al 2020;Zavadoff and Kirtman 2020;McClenny et al 2020). These studies highlight the importance of oceanic front and eddies in modifying the moisture supply in ARs, primarily through potential thermodynamic responses to mesoscale SSTs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Impact of the Gulf Stream front on atmospheric rivers and Rossby wave train in the North Atlantic

Ma,

Jia,

Han

2023

Preprint

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The Gulf Stream (GS) ocean front exhibits intense ocean-atmosphere interaction in winter, which has a significant impact on the genesis and development of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. The atmospheric rivers (ARs), closely related with the cyclones, transport substantial moisture from the North Atlantic towards the Western European coast. While the influence of the GS front on extratropical cyclones has been extensively studied, its effect on ARs remains unclear. In this study, two sets of ensemble experiments are conducted using a high-resolution global Community Atmosphere Model forced with or without the GS sea surface temperature (SST) front. Our findings reveal that the inclusion of the strong GS front leads to approximately 25% enhancement of water vapor transport and precipitation associated with ARs in the GS region and a more pronounced downstream response in Western Europe, characterized by up to 60% (40%) precipitation increases (reductions) around Spain (Norway). The influence of the GS front on ARs is mediated by both thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The thermodynamic aspect involves an overall increase of water vapor in both the GS region and Western Europe, promoting AR genesis. The dynamic aspect encompasses changes in storm tracks and Rossby wave train, contributing to downstream AR shift. Importantly, we find the co-occurrence of ARs and the GS front is crucial for inducing deep ascending motion and heating above the GS front, which perturbs the deep troposphere and triggers upper-level Rossby wave response. These findings provide a further understanding of the complex interaction between the oceanic front in the western boundary current regions and extratropical weather systems and the associated dynamics behind them.

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SST Warming in Recent Decades in the Gulf Stream Extension Region and Its Impact on Atmospheric Rivers

Cited by 6 publications

References 53 publications

Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode

Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode

Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends

Impact of the Gulf Stream front on atmospheric rivers and Rossby wave train in the North Atlantic

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