Spring wheat yield in the semiarid Canadian prairies: Effects of precipitation timing and soil texture over recent 30 years

He, Yong; Wei, Yangdou; DePauw, R. M.; Qian, Budong; Lemke, R.; Singh, Asheesh K.; Cuthbert, Richard D.; McConkey, B.G.; Wang, Hong

doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2013.05.013

Cited by 41 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The effects of higher temperatures measured by the monthly GDD broaden insights of earlier studies of other world regions suggesting a decrease in wheat yields (Lobell and Field 2007;Lobell et al 2011), while also confirming results of earlier studies focused on Saskatchewan, but using a different methodological approach (Kutcher et al 2010). The current study finds that pregrowing season precipitation and precipitation in the early stages of plant growth are particularly relevant, supporting previous studies showing general effect of precipitation on wheat yield variability reduction in other regions (Chen et al 2004) and specific field experimental studies on spring wheat in the Canadian prairies (He et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…Most of the earlier climate crop yield studies were by agronomists and meteorologists who analyzed how weather/crop yield effects varied over the crop growth life cycle. The two basic approaches adopted by agronomists included simulationcrop growth models (Jones et al 2003;Lobell and OrtizMonasterio 2007;Qian et al 2009a,b;Lobell and Burke 2010;Asseng et al 2011;Wang et al 2011; Özdo gan 2011; Urban et al 2012;Potgieter et al 2013) and regression/ correlation analyses (Robertson 1974;McCaig 1997;Kutcher et al 2010;He et al 2013). Crop growth models required detailed plant physiological data, and in combination with simulated weather data from global circulation models, they were able to predict how crop yields such as wheat responded to climatic weather conditions.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analyzing Temperature and Precipitation Influences on Yield Distributions of Canola and Spring Wheat in Saskatchewan

Meng

Carew

Florkowski

et al. 2017

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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The IPCC indicates that global mean temperature increases of 28C or more above preindustrial levels negatively affect such crops as wheat. Canadian climate model projections show warmer temperatures and variable rainfall will likely affect Saskatchewan's canola and spring wheat production. Drier weather will have the greatest impact. The major climate change challenges will be summer water availability, greater drought frequencies, and crop adaptation. This study investigates the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on canola and spring wheat yield distributions using Environment Canada weather data and Statistics Canada crop yield and planted area for 20 crop districts over the 1987-2010 period. The moment-based methods (full-and partial-moment-based approaches) are employed to characterize and estimate asymmetric relationships between climate variables and the higher-order moments of crop yields. A stochastic production function and the focus on crop yield's elasticity imply choosing the natural logarithm function as the mean function transformation prior to higher-moment function estimation. Results show that average crop yields are positively associated with the growing season degree-days and pregrowing season precipitation, while they are negatively affected by extremely high temperatures in the growing season. The climate measures have asymmetric effects on the higher moments of crop yield distribution along with stronger effects of changing temperatures than precipitation on yield distribution. Higher temperatures tend to decrease wheat yields, confirming earlier Saskatchewan studies. This study finds pregrowing season precipitation and precipitation in the early plant growth stages particularly relevant in providing opportunities to develop new crop varieties and agronomic practices to mitigate climate changes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Temperature and Precipitation Influences on Yield Distributions of Canola and Spring Wheat in Saskatchewan

Meng

Carew

Florkowski

et al. 2017

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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“…1), which resulted in to the lowest grain yields of the 3 yr investigated. Water stress can decrease HRSW grain yield (Guttieri et al, 2001) either by causing the production of fewer kernels per spike, if it occurs early in the season (from emergence to anthesis) (He et al, 2013) or by the production of lighter kernels if it occurs later in the season (during the grain‐filling period, Bindraban et al, 1998). No significant differences among grain yield of the four cultivars in 2012 suggest that all four cultivars handled water stress and used available crop water similarly.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adequate precipitation and favorable conditions throughout the growing season are important to maximize grain yield potential (Chen et al, 2011; Farmaha and Sims, 2013b; Guttieri et al, 2001). Insufficient precipitation early in the season (from seeding to anthesis) can reduce the number of kernels per spike (He et al, 2013), while insufficient precipitation later in the season (grain‐fill period) can decrease the weight of kernels (Bindraban et al, 1998). An air temperature greater than 25°C can accelerate phenologic development, shortening the grain‐filling period, and prompting a decrease of HRSW grain yields (Hatfield et al, 2011; Subedi et al, 2007).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Nitrogen Fertility on the Production Performance of Four Hard Red Spring Wheat Cultivars

2015

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Under rainfed conditions, apart from genetic di erences, N fertility is a major determinant of grain yield and grain N concentration of hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., HRSW). e goal of this study was to determine if prescriptive N recommendations are needed or useful for individual HRSW cultivars to maximize their grain yield and grain N concentration. To answer this question, the impact of N fertility was determined on the production performance of four HRSW cultivars. Field experiments were conducted from 2010 to 2012 with Faller, Samson, Glenn, and Vantage cultivars known to vary in their potential to produce grain yield and grain N concentration at low, medium, and high N fertility levels. Averaged across treatments, grain yield in 2010, 2011, and 2012 was 5.4, 4.6, and 4.2 Mg ha -1 . Di erences in grain yields were observed only in 2011; Faller produced greater grain yield (5.2 Mg ha -1 ) than Glenn (4.4 Mg ha -1 ) and Vantage (4.5 Mg ha -1 ). In 2010 and 2012, Glenn and Vantage produced around 7 to 10% greater grain N concentration than Faller or Samson. Increasing N fertility from low to medium generally increased grain yield, total dry biomass, grain N concentration, grain N removal, as well as decreased nitrogen harvest index (NHI) and various N e ciencies; but no signi cant di erences were observed when N fertility increased from medium to high. Nonsigni cant N fertility and cultivar interaction for each measured parameter suggests that the varying N fertility had little e ect on the genetic ability of the cultivars' production performance.

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“…In arid and semi‐arid regions, soil water holding capacity plays a key role in determining crop yield. Higher yields can be expected on soils with a higher water holding capacity than those with a lower one (He et al , ), especially in dry years. One of the most common soils at each location (Table ) was used in this study for simplicity as our major interest was in climate input rather than soil.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting spring wheat yield changes on the Canadian Prairies: effects of resolutions of a regional climate model and statistical processing

Qian

Wang

et al. 2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In addition to the uncertainty associated with crop models, climate scenarios are still a major source of uncertainty in projecting crop yield changes under climate change. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used as tools for dynamic downscaling of climate scenarios from global climate models (GCMs) to regional scales for climate change impact studies. It is known that running an RCM is more expensive and time consuming at a higher resolution than at a lower resolution. Therefore, it is interesting to investigate how resolutions of an RCM and statistical processing of RCM data may result in differences in projected crop yield changes. We used the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT)-CERES-Wheat model to simulate yield changes of spring wheat at 13 locations across the Canadian Prairies, with climate scenarios from a Canadian RCM (CanRCM4) driven by a Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) with the forcing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 at 25 and 50 km resolutions. Bias correction and a stochastic weather generator referred to as AAFC-WG were used as statistical processing tools to develop future climate scenarios as input to the crop model. The results showed that when changes were averaged across the locations, whether 25-or 50-km resolution CanRCM4 data were used, the projected yield changes were fairly consistent with those based on its driving GCM-CanESM2, especially if AAFC-WG was used to develop future climate scenarios. The spatial patterns of the projected yield changes were also similar for the two resolutions of CanRCM4, although the magnitude of the projected changes had a relatively large range among the scenarios at some locations. These results indicated that using future climate scenarios based on climate change simulations by GCMs might be sufficient for projecting regional crop yield changes on the Canadian Prairies.

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Spring wheat yield in the semiarid Canadian prairies: Effects of precipitation timing and soil texture over recent 30 years

Cited by 41 publications

References 42 publications

Analyzing Temperature and Precipitation Influences on Yield Distributions of Canola and Spring Wheat in Saskatchewan

Analyzing Temperature and Precipitation Influences on Yield Distributions of Canola and Spring Wheat in Saskatchewan

Impact of Nitrogen Fertility on the Production Performance of Four Hard Red Spring Wheat Cultivars

Projecting spring wheat yield changes on the Canadian Prairies: effects of resolutions of a regional climate model and statistical processing

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