Spring temperature shapes West Nile virus transmission in Europe

Marini, Giancarlo; Manica, Mattia; Delucchi, L.; Rosà, Roberto

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105796

Cited by 27 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Albeit summer climate conditions of the Italian peninsula were not so extreme during the summer months, warmer temperature in April-May were associated with sustained precipitations (see Figure A1 ), that represent an ideal setting for the amplification of competent vectors. As suggested by Marini et al [ 11 ] after an extensive reappraisal of European, spring climate (i.e., April to May) rather than summer temperatures actually represents a critical risk factor for higher circulation of WNV during the summer season. Interestingly enough, authors also suggested that warmer temperatures during the previous winter season may be associated with a subsequent higher circulation of the pathogen in the next season, stressing a possible overwintering capacity of the vectors (either directly, or because of mutated behavior of reservoir migrating birds).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even though WNV is often described as an “emerging pathogen”, when it comes to Italy, this definition may represent a sort of misnomer: as confirmed by our analyses, large areas of Northern Italy have become endemic to this infection since early 2010s [ 16 , 17 , 18 , 30 ], with around one-fifth of the total population living in areas at risk. Moreover, the pooled crude incidence rate for WNV infections 2012–2020 of 0.211 cases per 100,000 (0.090 cases per 100,000 for WNND) characterizes WNV infections as a relatively rare instance, but still exceeds the EU notification rate for locally acquired cases of 0.1 cases per 100,000 [ 1 , 11 , 12 , 21 , 25 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interestingly enough, authors also suggested that warmer temperatures during the previous winter season may be associated with a subsequent higher circulation of the pathogen in the next season, stressing a possible overwintering capacity of the vectors (either directly, or because of mutated behavior of reservoir migrating birds). In other words, climate changes may represent the primary driver of the epidemiology of WNV [ 11 , 30 , 34 , 35 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The importance of such factors is also confirmed by our analyses, as both population density, and occurrence of WNND cases in the nearby provinces were identified as significant effectors for the WNV neuro-invasive disease. Even though WNV has no inter-human spreading, higher population density increases the likelihood of being infected by pools of competent vectors, whose occurrence is in turn substantiated by higher rates in nearby areas [ 1 , 11 , 28 , 34 , 35 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar to other arboviruses (e.g., tick-borne encephalitis virus or TBEV) [ 9 , 10 ], WNV is currently spreading in Europe [ 1 , 2 , 11 , 12 , 13 ], alongside the routes of migratory birds [ 1 ]. After the first European outbreak in Camargue, Southern France (1962), WNV has regularly involved larger areas in Eastern, Western, and Southern Europe, with a seasonal trend from April to November.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiology of West Nile Virus Infections in Humans, Italy, 2012–2020: A Summary of Available Evidences

Riccò

Peruzzi

Balzarini³

2021

TropicalMed

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In Italy, human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection have been recorded since 2008, and seasonal outbreaks have occurred almost annually. In this study, we summarize available evidences on the epidemiology of WNV and West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans reported between 2012 and 2020. In total, 1145 WNV infection cases were diagnosed; of them 487 (42.5%) had WNND. A significant circulation of the pathogen was suggested by studies on blood donors, with annual incidence rates ranging from 1.353 (95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 0.279–3.953) to 19.069 cases per 100,000 specimens (95% CI 13.494–26.174). The annual incidence rates of WNND increased during the study period from 0.047 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.031–0.068) in 2012, to 0.074 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.054–0.099) in 2020, peaking to 0.377 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.330–0.429) in 2018. There were 60 deaths. Cases of WNND were clustered in Northern Italy, particularly in the Po River Valley, during the months of August (56.7%) and September (27.5%). Higher risk for WNND was reported in subjects of male sex (risk ratio (RR) 1.545, 95% CI 1.392–1.673 compared to females), and in older age groups (RR 24.46, 95% CI 15.61–38.32 for 65–74 y.o.; RR 43.7, 95% CI 28.33–67.41 for subjects older than 75 years), while main effectors were identified in average air temperatures (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.3219, 95% CI 1.0053–1.7383), population density (IRR 1.0004, 95% CI 1.0001–1.0008), and occurrence of cases in the nearby provinces (IRR 1.0442, 95% CI 1.0340–1.0545). In summary, an enhanced surveillance is vital for the early detection of human cases and the prompt implementation of response measures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%