Modelling the West Nile virus force of infection in the European human population

Marini, Giancarlo; Wint, William; Alexander, Neil; Rizzoli, A.; Rosà, Roberto

doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100462

Cited by 4 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The study by Farooq et al [128] indicates that low water availability throughout the first half of the year and high spring temperatures are correlated with WNV outbreaks. The latter is also supported by the findings of Marini et al [137]. A recent review suggests that the severe WNV outbreak in Europe in 2018 might have been driven by a wet spring that offered suitable conditions for vector populations to expand while the following summer drought could have led to exacerbated transmission [15].…”

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 57%

“…A positive association has been repeatedly found between increased WNV risk and high temperatures [99,127,128,136,137,[144][145][146][147][148][149][150]. Mechanistically it is understood that part of this sensitivity results from the impact of temperature on the vectors and the pathogen described earlier.…”

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 87%

“…Less complex models, like non-spatial logistic regression [99] or linear mixed effect models [136], can offer a straightforward solution to infer associations between drivers and disease occurrence. In a recent study, Marini et al [137] presented a highly interpretable approach by modeling the WNV force of infection through normal distributions. They related the peak timing, variance, and overall intensity of predicted cases to covariates, demonstrating that such simple models can offer a reliable approach for infering drivers when eco-epidemiological data is scarce.…”

Section: Eco-epidemiological Models Of Wnvmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For precipitation the picture seems less clear. Some studies found a negative correlation between high precipitation and WNV risk [127,128,148,151], while others found a positive correlation [136], indicate that it depends on the region considered [145,146,152], or did not find any significant relationship [137]. More direct measures of land surface wetness, that might be more relevant to mosquito dynamics, have also been considered including remotely sensed indices of water availability [99,128,136], or measures of soil moisture from hydrological models [131,153,154].…”

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…tarsalis in the West [42]. In Europe WNV circulation is predominantly associated with natural and anthropized semi-natural areas [137], although it should be noted that several large human outbreaks have been documented in urban areas [14]. A recent study looking at phylogeographic patterns indicates that areas with high agricultural activities may accelerate and attract the spread of WNV in Europe and that WNV also tends to spread towards areas with a high level of urbanisation and a high coverage of wetland [156].…”

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

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West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change

2023

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West Nile virus (WNV) is an arbovirus with a wide geographical distribution. It is maintained in an enzootic bird-mosquito cycle and exhibits regular zoonotic transmission to humans, to whom it can cause West Nile fever and neuroinvasive disease. Over the last decades, WNV has emerged as a serious health threat with profound impacts on animal and human health. It is broadly accepted that climate change impacts the transmission of WNV through multiple pathways via its impacts on vectors, the pathogen, hosts, and the environment. Although some clarity has been established, the outcomes of these climate-driven processes are yet to be better understood before they can fully benefit tailored prevention and control measures. This review focuses on the eco-epidemiology of WNV and how it is impacted by climate change through an integrative lens. We discuss the role of eco-epidemiological modeling in knowledge generation and highlight the importance of adopting an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary One Health approach for improved surveillance, data collection, modeling, and translation of outcomes into actionable policy and control.

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Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 57%

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Eco-epidemiological Models Of Wnvmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

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West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change

2023

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An Early Detection of West Nile Virus Using High Dense Time Series Analysis Framework

Zaidi,

Naval,

Faujdar

2024

2024 International Conference on Optimization Computing and Wireless Communication (ICOCWC)

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Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review

Wang,

Liu,

Gao

et al. 2024

Infect Dis Poverty

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Background West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies. Main body We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission (https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/). Conclusions This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.

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Modelling the West Nile virus force of infection in the European human population

Cited by 4 publications

References 38 publications

West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change

West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change

An Early Detection of West Nile Virus Using High Dense Time Series Analysis Framework

Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review

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