Spillovers from conditional cash transfer programs: Bolsa Família and crime in urban Brazil

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs on crime. Making use of a unique dataset combining detailed school characteristics with time and geo-referenced crime information from the city of São Paulo, Brazil, we estimate the contemporaneous effect of the Bolsa Família program on crime. We address the endogeneity of CCT coverage by exploiting the 2008 expansion of the program to adolescents aged 16 and 17. We construct an instrument that combines the timing of expansion and the initial demographic composition of schools to identify plausibly exogenous variations in the number of children covered by Bolsa Família. We find a robust and significant negative impact of Bolsa Família coverage on crime. The evidence suggests that the main effect works through increased household income or changed peer group, rather than from incapacitation from time spent in school.

First-day criminal recidivism

“…The income elasticity implicit in welfare programs in Brazil is -0.25 (Chioda, De Mello, and Soares 2012), in Colombia -0.4 (Camacho and Mejía 2013) and in the US -0.4 (Jacob and Ludwig 2010). The stronger effect we found is consistent with a higher propensity to commit crime in former inmates relative to welfare recipients.…”

The Cost of Crime and Violence in Five Latin American Countries

“…This in fact is supported by recent studies in LATAM that point out that conditional cash transfer policies reduces criminality (e.g. Chioda et al 2012).…”

Conditional Cash Transfers and Nutrition: An Evaluation of the Bolsa Familia Program in rural and urban areas of Brazil

“…Como bem documentado em Soares (2012), a maioria desses estudos apontam que o programa contribuiu para a redução do percentual de pessoas pobres e da desigualdade de renda. Alguns autores estudaram os efeitos do programa em outras dimensões, como: educação (Glewwe & Kassouf 2012, Silveira Neto 2010, saúde (AIBF-I 2007, AIBF-II 2012, trabalho infantil (Ferro & Kassouf 2005, Araújo et al 2010, criminalidade (Chioda et al (2016)), mortalidade infantil (Camelo et al 2009, Rasella et al 2013, etc. Em geral, esses estudos apontam resultados favoráveis ao programa.…”