Speed of convergence in global value chains: Forward or backward linkage

Wuri, Josephine; Widodo, Tri; Hardi, Amirullah Setya

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18070

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Moreover, the pandemic has had both direct and indirect negative effects in the short term. Social restriction policies imposed on various countries disrupt supply chains and decrease trade flows between countries, further reducing national output (Baldwin and Mauro 2020;Meier and Pinto 2020;Qian and Jiang 2020;Alfano and Ercolano 2021;Fasanya et al 2021;Ing and Vadila 2022;Wuri et al 2023). In order to recover economic conditions, precise monetary policy is needed due to its spillover effect (Georgiadis 2016;Ntshangase et al 2023;Miranda-Agrippino and Rey 2020).…”

Section: Dsdm Estimation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Interest Rate Spillover on Output Gap: A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

Wuri,

Hardanti,

Harnoto

et al. 2024

Economies

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The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020. After controlling for various institutional variables, this analysis further examines the effect of the exchange rate and the COVID-19 pandemic on the output gap. This model captures the spatial interactions and short- and long-term effects of interest rate monetary policies. The findings indicate a negative spillover effect of the US central bank interest rate on ASEAN+3 countries’ output gap. The result had significant direct and indirect short-term effects. Additionally, exchange rates negatively affect the output gap. The output gap decreased because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is expected to be useful for monetary authorities in developing the best monetary policy for economic recovery.

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Section: Dsdm Estimation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We perform a unit root test for the variables of interest using the Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) tests. The LLC test assumes a unit root process for each individual (Elhorst et al 2014;Wuri et al 2023). This is widely used in panel data unit root testing.…”

Section: Panel Unit Root Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Interest Rate Spillover on Output Gap: A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

Wuri,

Hardanti,

Harnoto

et al. 2024

Economies

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…Diagram Arsitektur Sistem Pada arsitektur sistem diawali dengan inputan gejala yang dimasukan oleh pengguna. Kemudian dengan menggunakan pelacakan Forward Chaining sistem akan menentukan jenis kerusakan apa saja dari gejala yang dinputkan [10][11][12]. Selanjutnya penggunaan metode Certainty Factor digunakan untuk mengitung nilai kepastian dari kerusakan yang didapatkan.…”

Section: Diagram Arsitektur Sistemunclassified

“…Prosedur ini diulangi hingga hasilnya ditemukan. Metode forward chaining cocok untuk menangani masalah pengendalian dan prediksi [11,12].…”

Section: Forward Chaining Dan Certainty Factorunclassified

Analisa Kerusakan Jaringan Internet menggunakan Metode Certainty Faktor : Study Case SimDa Indramayu

Nataliyadin

2024

komets

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Jaringan intranet SimDa pada Badan Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten Indramayu dan institusi memiliki peranan yang penting untuk membatu kinerja unit-unit di dalamnya. Jaringan intranet SimDa ini kerap kali digunakan pada Badan Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten Indramayu dan institusi untuk berbagi resources agar setiap unit pada dapat melakukan komunikasi data dengan cepat baik. Pembangunan sistem jaringan intranet SimDa yang sudah stabil tidak menjadi jaminan bahwa jaringan intranet SimDa tersebut terbebas dari gangguan yang dapat menyebabkan kinerja operasional Badan Keuangan Daerah tersebut terganggu. Banyaknya pengguna jaringan intranet SimDa yang kurang memahami dalam penanganan kerusakan jaringan intranet SimDa mengakibatkan pengguna komputer atau suatu Badan Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten Indramayu memerlukan pakar untuk memperbaiki kerusakan yang terjadi pada jaringan intranet SimDa. Dalam hal ini pakar yang dapat melakukan perbaikan tidak selalu ada saat terjadi trouble, maka diperlukan suatu sistem pakar untuk membantu mengetahui kerusakan yang terjadi dan cara penanganannya. Aplikasi sistem pakar ini dibuat untuk membantu pengguna jaringan intranet SimDa dalam melakukan deteksi terhadap suatu kerusakan jaringan intranet SimDa yang dialami beserta solusi perbaikan. Metode yang digunakan dalam pembangunan sistem pakar ini menggunakan metode Certainty Factor dengan menggunakan inferensi Forward Chaining. Dari hasil pengujian sistem dengan menggunakan 10 data uji menghasilkan tingkat akurasi sistem sebesar 90 % maka dapat dipastikan hasil dari diagnosa sistem dapat dipercaya.

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The Role of Comparative Advantage in Enhancing Trade in Value-Added Using a Dynamic GMM Model

Wuri

2024

Economies

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Currently, international trade has evolved into international production fragmentation captured in GVCs. Countries must enhance intermediate exports in comparative advantage sectors to increase their trade in value-added (TVA) in global production chains. However, traditional measurements of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) based on gross exports need to be updated due to overvaluation, double counting, and implicit distortions in international trade. This study uses a new comparative advantage measure, “new revealed symmetric comparative advantage” (NRSCA). Using a dynamic General Method of Moment (GMM) approach, we investigate the role of comparative advantage in driving TVA regarding backward and forward linkages and examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data from the current Asian Development Bank multi-regional input–output database for 2010–2020. Our findings reveal that comparative advantage significantly impacted international TVA, along with the support of quality institutional services in each country. Implementing a new comparative advantage measure, NRSCA, provided accurate estimation results to overcome the overvaluation problem. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted value-added trade.

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Speed of convergence in global value chains: Forward or backward linkage

Cited by 3 publications

References 44 publications

The Impact of Interest Rate Spillover on Output Gap: A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

The Impact of Interest Rate Spillover on Output Gap: A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

Analisa Kerusakan Jaringan Internet menggunakan Metode Certainty Faktor : Study Case SimDa Indramayu

The Role of Comparative Advantage in Enhancing Trade in Value-Added Using a Dynamic GMM Model

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