Abstract:Despite the frequent failure of mediation efforts, the potential negative impact of this outcome on conflict dynamics in civil wars has not been systematically studied. Starting from the assumption that the failure of mediation may cause the conflict parties to conclude that non-violent strategies are ineffective, we develop a rationalist model to explain under what conditions mediation failure might lead to the escalation of violence. Shifts in the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' goals and in… Show more
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