Specimen‐Based Modeling, Stopping Rules, and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Chao, Anne; Colwell, Robert K.; Hwang, Wen‐Han; Graves, Gary R.

doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01715.x

Cited by 33 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(63 reference statements)

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“…These belonged to 10 species, all of which were collected at least twice. Lack of singletons (species represented by only a single individual) implies that we have likely sampled all the species in the area detectable by our sampling methods (Gotelli et al ). Species composition differed significantly between open and closed forest (χ 2 = 43.3, DF = 8, p < 0.001), and between the April and November surveys (χ 2 = 46.3, DF = 9, p < 0.001; Table ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Limited role of character displacement in the coexistence of congenericAnelosimusspiders in a Madagascan montane forest

et al. 2015

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Evolutionary and ecological theory predicts that closely related and similar species should coexist infrequently because speciation is more likely to occur allopatrically than sympatrically, and because co‐occurring species with similar traits may compete for limited resources, leading to competitive exclusion or character displacement. Here we study the unusual coexistence of 10 similar congeneric species of Anelosimus spiders within a small forest fragment in Madagascar. We asked if these species radiated in sympatry or allopatry, and if there was evidence for local‐scale character displacement in body size and other species‐level traits. We sampled ∼ 350 colonies (6346 individuals) along a 2800 m transect. We identified colonies using morphology and DNA barcoding, and tested the monophyly of local and regional species assemblages with time‐calibrated phylogenies. We used null model analysis and phylogenetic signal inference to test for patterns of segregation in body size, microhabitat, phenology, and seasonality of coexisting species. We found that all species belong to a Madagascan clade that radiated during the Pliocene, but that contemporary local assemblages are non‐monophyletic. This is consistent with allopatric speciation during periods of global cooling and expansion of grasslands, and subsequent species assembly as forest fragments re‐expanded and coalesced. We found no evidence for character displacement, except for overdispersion and even spacing in phenology: species were segregated by instars in a manner consistent with resource partitioning or maintenance of reproductive isolation. Overdispersion or even spacing in phenology may contribute to coexistence either through resource partitioning or mate recognition. However, there was no support for a scenario of resource partitioning and divergence of body size or other correlated morphological characters. These traits are better explained by evolutionary forces operating during speciation, rather than ecological forces operating during local community assembly.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Limited role of character displacement in the coexistence of congenericAnelosimusspiders in a Madagascan montane forest

et al. 2015

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“…Model 2 seems more appropriate for the sighting record of the Ivory-billed Woodpeckerconsisting as it does of some physical specimens and some visual reports. Taking a different and more comprehensive approach, Gotelli et al (2012) concluded that this species is extinct. This finding is consistent with our analysis under model 2.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On Uncertain Sightings and Inference about Extinction

Solow

Beet

2014

Conservation Biology

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The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26:180-184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record.

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“…Stanton 2014), the ivory-billed woodpecker ( Campephilus principalis , e.g. Gotelli et al 2011 ), or Bachman's warbler ( Vermivora bachmanii , e.g. Carlson et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Georeferenced sighting and specimen occurrence data of the extinct Carolina Parakeet (Conuropsis carolinensis) from 1564 - 1944

Burgio

Carlson

Bond

2018

BDJ

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BackgroundDespite much present-day attention on recently extinct North American birds species, little contemporary research has focused on the Carolina parakeet (Conuropsis carolinesis). While the last captive Carolina parakeet died 100 years ago this year, the Carolina parakeet was officially declared extinct in 1920, but they likely persisted in small, isolated populations until at least the 1930s, and perhaps longer. How this once wide-ranging and plentiful species went extinct remains a mystery. Here, we present a georeferenced dataset of Carolina parakeet sightings spanning nearly 400 years by combining both written observations and specimen data.New informationBecause we include both observations and specimen data, the Carolina parakeet occurrence dataset presented here is the most comprehensive and rigorous datsetset on this species available. The dataset includes 861 sightings from 1564 to 1944. Each datapoint includes geographic coordinates, a measurement of uncertainty, detailed information about each sighting, and an assessment of the sighting's validity. Given that this species is so poorly understood, we make these data freely available to facilitate more research on this colorful and charismatic species.

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Specimen‐Based Modeling, Stopping Rules, and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Cited by 33 publications

References 40 publications

Limited role of character displacement in the coexistence of congenericAnelosimusspiders in a Madagascan montane forest

Limited role of character displacement in the coexistence of congenericAnelosimusspiders in a Madagascan montane forest

On Uncertain Sightings and Inference about Extinction

Georeferenced sighting and specimen occurrence data of the extinct Carolina Parakeet (Conuropsis carolinensis) from 1564 - 1944

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