Species range shifts in response to climate change and human pressure for the world's largest amphibian

Zhang, Peng; Dong, Xianghong; Grenouillet, Gaël; Lek, Sovan; Zheng, Yichen; Chang, Jianbo

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139543

Cited by 23 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…In addition to local and regional climate, species distributional responses are also a result of species‐specific physiological, behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses (William et al, 2009), along with biological interactions (Ling, 2008; Wisz et al, 2013), and the extent and nature of additional stressors (Zhang et al, 2020). In general, at warmer range edges where elevated temperatures exceed physiological tolerances, species distribution edges are typically contracting, while at cooler range edges, where there is an increasing availability of suitable conditions, species distributions are typically extending.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental‐scale review of climate‐driven species redistribution in marine systems

Gervais

Champion

Pecl

2021

Global Change Biology

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Climate‐driven changes in the distribution of species are a pervasive and accelerating impact of climate change, and despite increasing research effort in this rapidly emerging field, much remains unknown or poorly understood. We lack a holistic understanding of patterns and processes at local, regional and global scales, with detailed explorations of range shifts in the southern hemisphere particularly under‐represented. Australian waters encompass the world's third largest marine jurisdiction, extending from tropical to sub‐Antarctic climate zones, and have waters warming at rates twice the global average in the north and two to four times in the south. Here, we report the results of a multi‐taxon continent‐wide review describing observed and predicted species redistribution around the Australian coastline, and highlight critical gaps in knowledge impeding our understanding of, and response to, these considerable changes. Since range shifts were first reported in the region in 2003, 198 species from nine Phyla have been documented shifting their distribution, 87.3% of which are shifting poleward. However, there is little standardization of methods or metrics reported in observed or predicted shifts, and both are hindered by a lack of baseline data. Our results demonstrate the importance of historical data sets and underwater visual surveys, and also highlight that approximately one‐fifth of studies incorporated citizen science. These findings emphasize the important role the public has had, and can continue to play, in understanding the impact of climate change. Most documented shifts are of coastal fish species in sub‐tropical and temperate systems, while tropical systems in general were poorly explored. Moreover, most distributional changes are only described at the poleward boundary, with few studies considering changes at the warmer, equatorward range limit. Through identifying knowledge gaps and research limitations, this review highlights future opportunities for strategic research effort to improve the representation of Australian marine species and systems in climate‐impact research.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental‐scale review of climate‐driven species redistribution in marine systems

Gervais

Champion

Pecl

2021

Global Change Biology

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“…The map scales and coordinate grids are the same as Figure 2 salamanders, including the Chinese Giant Salamander (Andrias davidianus; Zhang, Mammola, et al, 2020;Zhang, Dong, et al, 2020), the Korean Crevice Salamander (Karsenia koreana; Borzée, Andersen, et al, 2019), and the Lorestan Mountain Newt (Neurergus kaiseri; Ashrafzadeh et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

Shin

Min

Borzée

2021

Ecology and Evolution

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“…An ensemble of species distribution models (Araújo & Guisan, 2006 ) was used to model potential suitable habitat for D. involucrata using the biomod2 package in the R platform (v. 4.0.4; http://cran.r‐project.org ). We chose the ensemble modeling approach because of its ability to create a consensus of the predictions of multiple algorithms and reduce the predictive uncertainty of single algorithm (Kanagaraj et al., 2019 ; Thuiller et al., 2014 ; Zhang, Dong, et al., 2020 ; Zhang, Mammola, et al., 2020 ). Ten algorithms were considered in the ensemble model: artificial neural network (ANN; Ripley, 1996 ), classification tree analysis (CTA; Breiman et al., 1984 ), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA; Hastie et al., 1994 ), generalized additive model (GAM; Hastie & Tibshirani, 1990 ), generalized boosting model (GBM; Ridgeway, 1999 ), generalized linear model (GLM; McCullagh & Nelder, 1989 ), multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS; Friedman, 1991 ), maximum entropy (MAXENT; Phillips et al., 2006 ), random forest (RF; Breiman, 2001 ), and surface range envelope (SRE; Busby, 1991 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By using ensemble modeling approaches, more robust projections can be produced with reasonable interpretation (Araújo & Guisan, 2006 ). Consequently, these approaches have been widely used to estimate the distributions of species under future climate change scenarios for plants (Forester et al., 2013 ), amphibians (Zhang, Dong, et al., 2020 ; Zhang, Mammola, et al., 2020 ), insects (Marshall et al., 2018 ), and mammals (Ahmad et al., 2020 ; Yen et al., 2011 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Long

Tang

Pilfold

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one‐third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high‐latitude regions. Similarly, at least one‐fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

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Species range shifts in response to climate change and human pressure for the world's largest amphibian

Cited by 23 publications

References 53 publications

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental‐scale review of climate‐driven species redistribution in marine systems

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental‐scale review of climate‐driven species redistribution in marine systems

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

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