Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

Falk, Wolfgang; Hempelmann, Nils

doi:10.1155/2013/787250

Cited by 55 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(91 reference statements)

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“…Results from modelling under different climate change scenarios predict a northward drift of the species range (Thuiller et al 2006;Bellard et al 2012;Falk and Hempelmann 2013) and the extinction of populations and a reduction of the range at the southern edge (Geßler et al 2006;Dounavi et al 2016). The climatic conditions in the north-eastern part of the present distribution range will become more favourable for beech.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of genetic diversity in Fagus sylvatica at the north-eastern edge of the natural range

Kempf¹,

Konnert²

2016

Silva Fenn.

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Distribution of genetic diversity in Fagus sylvatica at the north-eastern edge of the natural rangeKempf M., Konnert M. (2016). Distribution of genetic diversity in Fagus sylvatica at the north-eastern edge of the natural range. Silva Fennica vol. 50 no. 4 article id 1663. 17 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.14214/sf.1663. Highlights• European beech at the north-eastern edge of its natural range in Poland have a high level of genetic variation, similar to the populations from Central Europe.• The differences between the beech provenances from the two centres in Poland, which were previously identified on the basis of pollen analyses and phenotypic traits, have now been genetically confirmed. AbstractAn understanding of the genetic variation of the beech, especially at the edge of its natural distribution, is essential because of the change in natural distribution of the species resulting from changing climatic conditions. The main aim of the study was to determine the level of genetic diversity of European beech at the north-eastern edge of its natural range. The other aim was to check the genetic variation of beech from the two centres, the north and the south of Poland, which were identified in previous findings based on pollen analyses and phenotypic traits. The research material was the progeny of twelve beech provenances. The genetic structure of the populations was determined by ten highly variable microsatellite DNA loci. The results confirmed the high genetic diversity of beech at the north-eastern edge of its natural distribution, which infers the probability of their good adaptation to the changing climate and an extension of the range. Genetic analyses confirmed the existence of two genetic centres for beech in Poland. The populations from south-eastern Poland had a slightly higher diversity than the populations from the north-western area, which may indicate that the colonisation of Poland occurred by two routes. The results are important for creating the borders of the provenance regions and for limiting the transfer of seeds and seedlings. The choice of forest reproductive material, based on the knowledge of genetic diversity, is very important for the stability of future forests.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of genetic diversity in Fagus sylvatica at the north-eastern edge of the natural range

Kempf¹,

Konnert²

2016

Silva Fenn.

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“…One example in which an SDM has been employed as an Ecological Site Classification Decision Support System (ESC-DSS) are the European SDMs developed by the Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (Falk & Hempelmann 2013, Schueler et al 2014). These models are based on information on the Europe-wide distribution of over 20 tree species and use semi-parametric regression techniques to describe the relationship between climate partment of Soil and Climate, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, 85354 Freising, Germany; Jörg Kunz -Department of Silviculture, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwig-University Freiburg, Tennenbacherstraße 4, 79106 Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Germany; Achim Bräun-ing, Cathrin Meinardus -Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Wetterkreuz 15, 91058 Erlangen, Germany; Christian Zang -Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany; Laura M.E.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

et al. 2017

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Ch., Sutcliffe L., Leuschner Ch., 2017. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany. Ann. For. Res. 60(1): 101-126. Abstract.We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs) using information on species' climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA) from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea), whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted) is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

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“…Already today, the spatial and altitudinal distribution of beech is found to change towards sufficient water supply at higher elevation and towards Northern Europe ( Kramer et al, 2010). Beech is replaced by more drought‐tolerant species such as oak at its southern distribution limit ( Falk and Hempelmann , 2013; Hanewinkel et al, 2013; Peñuelas and Boada , 2003; Rasztovits et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought effects on C, N, and P nutrition and the antioxidative system of beech seedlings depend on geographic origin

Netzer

Thöm

Ćelepirović

et al. 2016

J. Plant Nutr. Soil Sci.

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In future, prolonged summer drought and heat will constitute a major risk for the cultivation of shallow-rooting beech in Central Europe and will negatively affect the productivity of beech forests. In a pot experiment under controlled conditions, the influence of long-term (28 d) water deprivation on nitrogen (N), carbon (C), phosphate (P i ), and ascorbate (ASC) concentrations was examined in leaves and fine roots of beech seedlings (Fagus sylvatica L.) from six provenances originating from Central Europe (Germany: Neidenstein and Illertissen, intermediate habitats), the Balkan peninsula (Croatia: Zagreb and Gospic, wet habitats), and Southeast Europe (Bulgaria: Kotel, Greece: Paikos; dry habitats). The goal of the study was to identify beech provenances well adapted to water limitation during summer drought events. Our results suggest that N might be involved in the alleviation of water scarcity, whereas P i might become a limiting factor for forest growth during drought periods. Drought stress resulted in significant changes of ASC pools in leaves and fine roots and the ASC redox state. Under well-watered and under drought conditions, ASC in leaves was the most important factor causing differences between the provenances examined. Finally, a link between P nutrition and the capacity of antioxidative stress defense by ascorbate could be highlighted. Based on observations from this study, beech seedlings from three origins (Paikos, Zagreb, and Neidenstein) might constitute beech provenances well adapted to water shortage in summer. This conclusion is drawn from the high potential of these provenances to alleviate oxidative stress during water shortage.

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Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

Cited by 55 publications

References 49 publications

Distribution of genetic diversity in <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> at the north-eastern edge of the natural range

Distribution of genetic diversity in <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> at the north-eastern edge of the natural range

Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

Drought effects on C, N, and P nutrition and the antioxidative system of beech seedlings depend on geographic origin

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