Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

Abstract

Ch., Sutcliffe L., Leuschner Ch., 2017. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany. Ann. For. Res. 60(1): 101-126. Abstract.We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs) using information on species' climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA) from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea), whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted) is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

Responses of Contrasting Tree Functional Types to Air Warming and Drought

“…Three different layers of soil, reaching 120 cm in total, comprised deep down, 35 cm of gravel, followed by 50 cm of pure sand and a 35-cm top layer of sand with 30% humus. This soil composition is similar to the soils from the Franconian plateau [45], one of the driest and warmest regions in Germany [46], having a 32.5% of maximum water capacity and a pH of 7.2. The experiment was set up following a split-plot design ( Figure S1) with four treatments during the growing season: control, temperature increase (temp), rainfall exclusion (dry) and the combination of temperature increase and rainfall exclusion (drytemp).…”

Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change—Implications for Bavarian protected areas

“…Comparable previous research did not consider the criterion of protected area coverage. Nevertheless, literature supports the results presented here by likewise predicting range losses for many tree species and stressing sensitivity differences (Dyderski et al, ; Ohlemüller, Gritti, Sykes, & Thomas, ; Walentowski et al, ). In this context, altered species compositions of forests become relevant (Buras & Menzel, ).…”

Are Scots pine forest edges particularly prone to drought-induced mortality?

“…In Franconia, Germany, Scots pine is projected to reach its climatic limit in course of the anticipated climate change (Walentowski et al 2017). In this context, the regionally pronounced Scots pine die-back after the hot and dry summer in 2015 may be considered an early-warning signal (Gößwein et al 2017).…”