Abstract:Duffie (1996) examines the theoretical impact of repo “specials” on the prices of Treasury securities and concludes that, all else the same, an issue on special will carry a higher price than an otherwise identical issue. We examine this hypothesis and find strong evidence in support of it. We also examine whether the liquidity premium associated with “on‐the‐run” issues is due to repo specialness and find evidence of a distinct effect. Finally, we investigate whether auction tightness and percentage awarded t… Show more
“…Empirical evidence of the impact on treasury prices and securities-lending premia ("repo specials") can be found in Duffie (1996), Jordan and Jordan (1997), and Krishnamurthy (2002), who estimates that much of the on-therun price premia in 30-year issues has been due, on average, to repo specials. Lending "specials" in equity markets are measured by Geczy, Musto, andReed (2002), D'Avolio (2002), and Jones and Lamont (2002).…”
“…Empirical evidence of the impact on treasury prices and securities-lending premia ("repo specials") can be found in Duffie (1996), Jordan and Jordan (1997), and Krishnamurthy (2002), who estimates that much of the on-therun price premia in 30-year issues has been due, on average, to repo specials. Lending "specials" in equity markets are measured by Geczy, Musto, andReed (2002), D'Avolio (2002), and Jones and Lamont (2002).…”
“…For example, the Treasury market has been found to contain a liquidity component that lowers the Treasury yield when the Treasury supply declines during eras of budget surplus (Feldhütter and Lando 2005, Jordan and Jordan 1997, Longstaff et al 2005. Bikbov and Chernov (2006) and Dai and Philippon (2004) find that fiscal policy variables help explain the Treasury term structure.…”
F rom a large array of economic and financial data series, this paper identifies three fundamental risk dimensions underlying an economy: inflation, real output growth, and financial market volatility. Furthermore, through a no-arbitrage model, the paper links the dynamics and market pricing of the three risk dimensions to the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields and corporate bond credit spreads. Model estimation shows that positive inflation shocks increase Treasury yields and widen credit spreads on corporate bonds across all maturities and credit-rating classes. Positive real output growth shocks also increase Treasury yields, but they suppress the credit spreads at low credit-rating classes, thus generating negative correlations between interest rates and credit spreads. The financial market volatility factor has a small and transient effect on the Treasury yield curve, but it exerts a strongly positive and persistent effect on the credit spread term structure. The paper provides a robust and internally consistent method for extracting systematic economic information from a large array of noisy observations and establishing how different risk dimensions of the fundamental economy interact with interest rate and credit risk.
“…More generally, repos are studied by e.g. Duffie (1996) and Jordan and Jordan (1997) who focus on the special repo rate. Hartmann et al (2001) study the microstructure of the overnight euro money market.…”
An order flow model, where the coded identity of the counterparties of every trade is known, (providing institutional order flow) is applied to both stable and crisis periods in a large and liquid overnight repo market in an emerging market economy. Institutional level order flow is much more informative than cross sectionally aggregated order flow. The informativeness of order flow increases with financial instability. Traders place greater emphasis on measuring the trading activities of their competitors when markets are more volatile, enabling them to identity potential targets for squeezing, especially during the crisis when several banks are vulnerable.
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