Spatiotemporal trends and drivers of population dynamics in a declining Sonoran Desert predator

Flesch, Aaron D.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2014.04.021

Cited by 11 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Predator populations respond indirectly to these resource pulses at longer lag times of typically two or more years (Dennis & Otten, 2000;Jaksic, Jimenez, Castro, & Feinsinger, 1992;Letnic, Tamayo, & Dickman, 2005;Lima et al, 2002). More locally in the Sonoran Desert, increases in reproductive output and abundance of snakes, raptors, and other lizard predators after periods of high P match these patterns and are consistent with the lag times we used as a proxy for the hypothesized influence of predation (Flesch, 2014;Flesch et al, 2015;Rosen, 2000).…”

Section: Precipitation (P)supporting

confidence: 67%

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Long‐term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

Flesch

Rosen

Holm

2017

Global Change Biology

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Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (T ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.

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Section: Precipitation (P)supporting

confidence: 67%

“…America (Barrows, 2006;Zylstra et al, 2013;Flesch, 2014;Lovich et al, 2014;Cruz-McDonnell & Wolf, 2015), and have broad implications for conservation and management in aridlands worldwide.…”

Section: Precipitation (P)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

Flesch

Rosen

Holm

2017

Global Change Biology

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“…). The strong association between climate variation and owl reproductive and population trends suggests bottom‐up resource effects are driving Burrowing Owl demographics in this region, and time lags of the biological responses to variation in temperature and precipitation indicate both direct and indirect effects operate in this system (Flesch, ). Our results suggest the proximate cause of reduced reproduction is the linkage between low winter precipitation and May–June prey abundance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Insect herbivore abundance can respond rapidly to seasonal precipitation inputs (Polis et al, 1997;Masters et al, 1998;Jones et al, 2003), while rodents and other taxa may respond after a lag period (Ernest et al, 2000;Lima et al, 2008;Thibault et al, 2010). In desert birds, physiological costs of high air temperatures and heat stress may affect survival (Wolf, 2000), body condition (du Plessis et al, 2012;Cunningham et al, 2013), reproduction (Bolger et al, 2005;Guthery et al, 2005), and prey resources (Sinervo et al, 2010;Moses et al, 2012) leading to delayed demographic responses (Anders & Post, 2006;Both et al, 2010;Flesch, 2014). To test for the lag effect of climate variability on population change, we tested population as a function of annual precipitation and drought from the two previous years and previous year breeding season (March-June) mean maximum temperature.…”

Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although numerous studies have documented climate impacts on avian reproductive phenology and demography (Parmesan, ; Knudsen et al ., ; Jenouvrier, ), most of this research has been conducted on species residing in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions (Gordo, ). Few studies provide longer‐term insight into the responses of arid‐zone birds to rapid warming and increased drought severity and frequency (Brown et al ., ; Li & Brown, ; Altwegg & Anderson, ; Flesch, ), and the biotic and abiotic pressures confronting species in arid vs. north‐temperate zones may differ greatly. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change ‘hotspot’, with projections of increasing air temperature, aridity, and interannual variability (Diffenbaugh et al ., ; Seager & Vecchi, ; Gutzler & Robbins, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Cruz-McDonnell

Wolf

2015

Global Change Biology

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Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.

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On the validity of visual cover estimates for time series analyses: a case study of hummock grasslands

et al. 2015

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Spatiotemporal trends and drivers of population dynamics in a declining Sonoran Desert predator

Cited by 11 publications

References 40 publications

Long‐term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

Long‐term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

On the validity of visual cover estimates for time series analyses: a case study of hummock grasslands

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