Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.

Migratory birds are demonstrating changes in phenology linked to climate change. Understanding these changes requires connecting events that occur over the multiple regions occupied during their annual cycle. The Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) is a species of concern in North America, with pronounced declines in regions of the Great Plains. Using a dataset that spanned 10 breeding sites from South Dakota to northern Mexico in various years during 1989–2017, we observed both advances and delays in nesting along with increasing variation in nest initiation dates. We examined the effects of a large-scale climate system (El Niño Southern Oscillation), drought, and local weather patterns throughout the annual cycle as potential predictors of early and late nesting. Moisture conditions during the winter and spring migratory period had the greatest influence on nest phenology. Years with more intense drought on winter and migratory grounds increased the probability of nests initiating late relative to early. Correspondingly, wet conditions were associated with an increased probability of early nest initiation. Drought likely has cascading ecological effects that negatively influence food abundance for Burrowing Owls, resulting in delays in the ability of individuals to meet energetic demands required for migration. How climate change will impact Burrowing Owl phenology is important considering a projected increase in the magnitude and frequency of drought and declining owl population trends.

Western Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea; hereafter, Burrowing Owls) were once widespread residents of grasslands throughout western North America, but their range has contracted, and abundance has declined in some regions. The causes of declines and geographic variation in population trends of Burrowing Owls are unclear but may be linked to changing land use and urbanization. Burrowing Owls are often found in association with airfields and airports, and their presence at such facilities is sometimes considered to be in conflict with those operations. Documenting the long-term persistence of Burrowing Owls at active airfields can help airfield managers who face decisions regarding compatibility of owls and airfield operations. We report the results of a long-term effort to monitor Burrowing Owls on Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, USA, including the rapid recovery of Burrowing Owl numbers from near-extirpation and the relationships between abundance and other demographic traits. The number of breeding pairs of Burrowing Owls increased from one pair in 2013 to 28 pairs in 2019 and 2020, and the number of fledglings produced increased from one in 2013 to 84 in 2019 and 61 in 2020. The recovery was not uniform across all areas of Kirtland Air Force Base, and some formerly occupied areas remained unoccupied. We documented dispersal outside the Air Force base boundary and that the number of breeding pairs was more strongly influenced by the number of offspring produced in the prior year than the number of owls returning from prior years, which indicated that the population is part of a larger meta-population. Our results demonstrate that the maintenance of Burrowing Owl populations is not necessarily at odds with safe airfield operations, that Burrowing Owls exhibit complex population dynamics, and can rapidly recolonize previously occupied areas if habitat and nest sites remain suitable.

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