Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil

Abstract

Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease.

Hunting pressure modulates the composition and size structure of terrestrial and arboreal vertebrates in Amazonian forests

“…Furthermore, higher numbers of spiny rats likely disrupt the balance of seed predation interactions for several largeseeded plant species (Galetti et al 2015b), which can cause a significant change in forest composition, given the importance of seed predators in maintaining plant diversity. In terms of human health, positive numerical responses in rodents may result in increases in the risk of infectious diseases for which rodents are competent reservoirs, such as hantavirus and leishmaniasis (Ashford 2000;Muylaert et al 2019). This would support the hypothesis that large mammal defaunation increases disease risk in humans.…”

Land-use change and rodent-borne diseases: hazards on the shared socioeconomic pathways

“…Several of the identified hotspots are current areas known to be endemic for rodent-borne diseases. For example, an important area of HPS [ 64 ] and Brazilian haemorrhagic fever (Sabia virus, family Arenaviridae) were identified [ 65 ] located in the highly fragmented Atlantic Forest in southeast Brazil. There are at least nine hantavirus strains and 16 rodent species associated with these hantaviruses in this region [ 66 ].…”

“…There are at least nine hantavirus strains and 16 rodent species associated with these hantaviruses in this region [ 66 ]. Furthermore, HPS risk in southeast Brazil is related to agricultural lands and forest fragmentation [ 16 , 64 , 67 ]. Several rodents are known to harbour hantavirus strains in North America, mainly in Mexico and the USA [ 68 , 69 ].…”

Mathematical Model of the Spread of Hantavirus Infection

“…On the other hand, the change in land use from native forests to agricultural and forest lands as well as high temperatures in humid climates are identified as relevant factors in the interaction between agricultural workers and the rodent and, therefore, in the spread of hantavirus [ 43 ]. A study in the Atlantic forest [ 44 ] indicates that forest restoration could reduce the possibility of HI transmission by 45%.…”