Spatiotemporal drought variability on the Mongolian Plateau from 1980–2014 based on the SPEI-PM, intensity analysis and Hurst exponent

Tong, Siqin; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Jiquan; Bao, Yuhai; Lusi, Anabela; Ma, Qiyun; Li, Xiangqian; Zhong-ke, Feng

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.121

Cited by 148 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Predicting future drought trends has received much attention in recent years, which is important for long-term water use planning and developing adaptation strategies to reduce climate risk [15][16][17][18][19]. However, most current work focuses on the analysis of specific regions (e.g., southwest China [20], eastern China [21], northwest China [22], and Loess Plateau [23]) rather than the whole China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Trend Analysis Based on the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index Using NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, High Spatial Resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Projections, and Assessment of Potential Impacts on China’s Crop Yield in the 21st Century

Guo

Yang

et al. 2019

Water

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Drought is among the costliest natural disasters on both ecosystems and agroeconomics in China. However, most previous studies have used coarse resolution data or simply stopped short of investigating drought projection and its impact on crop yield. Motivated by the newly released higher-resolution climate projection dataset and the crucial need to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural production, the overarching goal of this study was to systematically and comprehensively predict future droughts at unprecedented resolutions over China as a whole. rather than region-specific projections, and then to further investigate its impact on crop yield by innovatively using a soil water deficit drought index. Methodologically, the drought projections were quantified from very high resolution climate data and further predicted impacts on crop yield over China using the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a relatively high (25 km) spatial resolution from NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). The results showed that (1) overall, China is projected to experience a significant decrease in SPEI (−0.15/decade under RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5; −0.14/decade under RCP8.5). Seasonally, the decreasing rate of SPEI is projected to be largest in winter (−0.2/decade and −0.31/decade) and the least in summer (−0.08/decade and −0.10/decade) under respective RCPs. (2) Regionally, winter/spring will get drier, especially at high latitudes/altitudes (North China and Tibetan plateau), and summer/autumn will get wetter in southern China. (3) Both the frequency and duration for medium and severe drought are projected to decrease, while extreme drought, particularly in high latitudes/altitudes, is projected to increase. (4) The percentage of the potential crop production affected by drought would increase to 36% (47%) by 2100 under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Especially, the ratio impacted by extreme drought is projected to increase over time and with much worse magnitude under RCP8.5; thus, adaptive crop policies are expected to address such a risk.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Trend Analysis Based on the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index Using NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, High Spatial Resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Projections, and Assessment of Potential Impacts on China’s Crop Yield in the 21st Century

Guo

Yang

et al. 2019

Water

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“…Hurst (1951) [3] proposed a useful statistical method for understanding the properties of a studied time series., it is often used to analyze long-term time series correlations [9][10]. Depending on the H value, In particular, there is persistence for H > 0.5, and for H < 0.5 anti persistence (is called by Mandelbrot Joseph effect) it corresponds to alternations of rise and fall in the process [10-11-12].…”

Section: Nonlinear Least Squaresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting COVID-19 new cases in Algeria using Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average Models (ARFIMA)

Balah

Djeddou

2020

Preprint

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“…The calculation program was acquired from the National Drought Mitigation Center (https://drought.unl.edu/) [32]. The SPI values were classified into five classes [33] ( Table 1). To further understand the impact of prolonged drought on pine caterpillars, mean SPI was calculated for the first n years (n = 1, 5, 10), with SPI10, SPI5, and SPI1 providing insight into the drought conditions of the first 10, 5, and 1 years, respectively.…”

Section: Standard Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Drought on Outbreaks of Major Forest Pests, Pine Caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.), in Shandong Province, China

Bao

Zhang

Tong

et al. 2019

Forests

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As the main defoliators of coniferous forests in Shandong Province, China, pine caterpillars (including Dendrolimus suffuscus suffuscus Lajonquiere, D. spectabilis Butler, and D. tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu) have caused substantial forest damage, adverse economic impacts, and losses of ecosystem resources. Therefore, elucidating the effects of drought on the outbreak of these pests is important for promoting forestry production and ecological reconstruction. Accordingly, the aim of the present study was to analyse the spatiotemporal variation of drought in Shandong Province, using the Standard Precipitation Index, and to investigate the impact of drought on the outbreak of pine caterpillar infestations. Future trends in drought and pine caterpillar populations were then estimated using the Hurst exponent. The results showed that: (1) Drought decreased gradually and showed a wetting trend from 1981 to 2012, with frequency decreasing on a decadal scale as follows: 1980s > 1990s > 2000s > 2010s; (2) The total area of pine caterpillar occurrence decreased strongly from 1992 to 2012; (3) Long-term or prolonged drought had a greater positive impact on pine caterpillar outbreak than short-term drought; (4) In the future, a greater portion of the province’s area will experience increased wetting conditions (57%) than increased drought (43%), and the area of pine caterpillar outbreak is estimated to decrease overall. These findings help elucidate the relationship between drought and pine caterpillar outbreak in Shandong Province and, hence, provide a basis for developing preventive measures and plans.

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Spatiotemporal drought variability on the Mongolian Plateau from 1980–2014 based on the SPEI-PM, intensity analysis and Hurst exponent

Cited by 148 publications

References 40 publications

Forecasting COVID-19 new cases in Algeria using Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average Models (ARFIMA)

Effect of Drought on Outbreaks of Major Forest Pests, Pine Caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.), in Shandong Province, China

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