Spatio-temporal variation of crop loss in the United States from 2001 to 2016

Reyes, Julian; Elias, Emile

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab1ac9

Cited by 41 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although insufficient chill accumulation is not a principle cause of loss for federally-insured crops in the SEUS [41,42], previous work has postulated that projected declines in chill may reduce suitability for perennial crop production [19,43]. Similarly, the projected future declines in chill accumulation across the SEUS complement previous work showing increases in the average and coldest winter minimum temperatures [16], and declines in chill accumulation in regions around the globe [21].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Warming Winters Reduce Chill Accumulation for Peach Production in the Southeastern United States

Parker

Abatzoglou

2019

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Insufficient winter chill accumulation can detrimentally impact agriculture. Understanding the changing risk of insufficient chill accumulation can guide orchard management and cultivar selection for long-lived perennial crops including peaches. This study quantifies the influence of modeled anthropogenic climate change on observed chill accumulation since 1981 and projected chill accumulation through the mid-21st century, with a focus on principal peach-growing regions in the southeastern United States, and commonly grown peach cultivars with low, moderate, and high chill accumulation requirements. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced winter chill accumulation, increased the probability of winters with low chill accumulation, and increased the likelihood of winters with insufficient chill for commonly grown peach cultivars in the southeastern United States. Climate projections show a continuation of reduced chill accumulation and increased probability of winters with insufficient chill accumulation for cultivars with high chill requirements, with approximately 40% of years by mid-century having insufficient chill in Georgia. The results highlight the importance of inter-annual variability in agro-climate risk assessments and suggest that adaptive measures may be necessary in order to maintain current peach production practices in the region in the coming decades.Climate 2019, 7, 94 2 of 13 able to tolerate cold temperatures. Many perennial crops must be exposed to a certain amount of cold temperatures, or chill, during this period of dormancy to continue their development in the spring [6]. Peach cultivation is governed by a number of climatic factors such as cold hardiness, frost tolerance, and sufficient heat accumulation. Peach cultivars are frequently selected based on climatological chill accumulation [7] as insufficient chill accumulation can reduce flower quality, inhibit pollination and fruit development, and lower fruit quality and yield [6,8,9], with subsequent economic impacts to both growers and consumers [10].Observational studies have shown warming in both the mean and extreme cold winter temperatures over the past half century across the US [11][12][13], much of which is consistent with anthropogenic forcing [14] and is expected to continue under climate change [15,16]. The exceptions of observed warming trends are primarily found in the warming hole across parts of the SEUS where winter temperatures cooled and spring onset trended later over the latter half of the 20th century [17,18]. The warming hole is likely a consequence of internal variability of the climate system that has buffered the influence of anthropogenic forcing to date, but is not expected to persist into the coming decades [17]. While it is acknowledged that chill accumulation is only one of many thermal-metrics that might directly impact crop suitability in a changing climate [19], declines in chill accumulation have been observed in some regions [20] and are projected to decline further [21]. Likewise, increases in winter t...

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Warming Winters Reduce Chill Accumulation for Peach Production in the Southeastern United States

Parker

Abatzoglou

2019

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Another tool useful in adaptation is the AgRisk Viewer (http://swclimatehub.info/RMA), a web-based platform providing accessible, discoverable, and usable federal crop insurance loss data originally from the United States Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency [158]. Information about historic crop loss highlights regional spatial and temporal vulnerabilities related to weather events.…”

Section: Interacting Systems and Adaptation: Building Resilience In Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Crop insurance is an important risk management tool used by producers to mitigate crop price declines and weather-and climate-related events. Assessments of historic weather-and climate-driven agricultural losses, especially insurance payments, offer insight that can be factored into risk management decisions [158]. Historic causes of crop loss (e.g., drought, hail) can inform possible risk management strategies for frequent or recurring events, or adaptation strategies based on producers' risk tolerance.…”

Section: Interacting Systems and Adaptation: Building Resilience In Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Historic causes of crop loss (e.g., drought, hail) can inform possible risk management strategies for frequent or recurring events, or adaptation strategies based on producers' risk tolerance. Analyses of past crop loss events may be more salient to producers in their near-term operational management, and more effective in supporting climate-informed decision making [158,159]. Retrospective analyses of crop losses may inform producers' decision making and risk management strategies.…”

Section: Interacting Systems and Adaptation: Building Resilience In Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Crop Vulnerability to Weather and Climate Risk: Analysis of Interacting Systems and Adaptation Efficacy for Sustainable Crop Production

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is increasing mean and extreme temperatures in the Southwestern United States, leading to a suite of changes affecting agricultural production. These include changes in water, soils, pathogens, weeds, and pests comprising the production environment. The aim of this synthesis is to describe the anticipated leading agricultural pressures and adaptive responses, many of which are near-term actions with longer-term consequences. In the semiarid Southwestern United States, climate change is expected to increase water scarcity. Surface water shortage is the leading reason for recent diminished crop yields in the Southwest. Drought and lack of water represent the leading regional weather-related cause of crop loss from 1989 to 2017. Thus, water scarcity has been and will continue to be a critical factor leading to regional crop vulnerability. Soils, pathogens, weeds, and insects are components of the agricultural production environment and are directly influenced by near-term weather and long-term climate conditions. Field crops, vegetable crops, and perennial crops have unique production requirements and diverse management options, many already used in farm management, to cope with production environment changes to build climate resilience. Farmers and ranchers continuously respond to changing conditions on a near-term basis. Long-term planning and novel adaptation measures implemented may now build nimble and responsive systems and communities able to cope with future conditions. While decision-support tools and resources are providing increasingly sophisticated approaches to cope with production in the 21st century, we strive to keep pace with the cascading barrage of inter-connected agricultural challenges.

show abstract

“…However, federal crop insurance may pose a barrier to water conservation or adaptation -even under declining water levels -due to existing federal irrigation policies (Basso et al, 2013;Deryugina and Konar, 2017). Assessments of historic weather and climate-driven agricultural losses, especially insurance payments, offer producers valuable insight that can be factored into their risk management decisions (Reyes and Elias, 2019). Specifically, changes in causes of crop loss (e.g., drought, hail) over time and space can inform possible risk management strategies for frequent or recurring events, or adaptation strategies based on producers' risk tolerance (e.g., Kistner et al, 2018;Steele et al, 2018;Reyes and Elias, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing agricultural risk management using historic crop insurance loss data over the ogallala aquifer

Reyes

Elias

Haacker

et al. 2020

Agricultural Water Management

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Much of the agricultural production in the Ogallala Aquifer region relies on groundwater for irrigation. In addition to declining water levels, weather and climate-driven events affect crop yields and revenues. Crop insurance serves as a risk management tool to mitigate these perils. Here, we seek to understand what long-term crop insurance loss data can tell us about agricultural risk management in the Ogallala. We assess patterns and trends in crop insurance loss data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency. Indemnities, or insurance payments, totaled $22 billion from 1989-2017 for the 161 counties that overlie the Ogallala Aquifer. We focused on the top ten weather and climate-driven causes of crop loss for the Ogallala, which comprised at least 92% of total indemnities. Drought, hail, and heat were the leading causes of crop loss for the region, and varied over space and time. For example, drought is a significant cause of loss across all seasons, while hail is more prevalent in the spring and summer. Spatially heterogeneous patterns emerged showing larger hail indemnities in the northern Ogallala versus larger drought indemnities in the southern portion. We performed a Mann-Kendall trend analysis of county-level annual loss cost values (the ratio of indemnities to liabilities). Drought and excess moisture showed significant increasing loss cost trends in the western counties of the Ogallala. In contrast, hail showed significant decreasing trends in the northern and eastern portions. These results suggest the northern counties of the Ogallala may perceive hail as a greater risk, and may be better equipped to handle drought losses as compared with the southern Ogallala. Crop insurance loss data play a role in integrating long-term trends with near-term management practices, and providing relevant risk information in producers' operational to tactical decision making processes.

show abstract

Spatio-temporal variation of crop loss in the United States from 2001 to 2016

Cited by 41 publications

References 49 publications

Warming Winters Reduce Chill Accumulation for Peach Production in the Southeastern United States

Warming Winters Reduce Chill Accumulation for Peach Production in the Southeastern United States

Crop Vulnerability to Weather and Climate Risk: Analysis of Interacting Systems and Adaptation Efficacy for Sustainable Crop Production

Assessing agricultural risk management using historic crop insurance loss data over the ogallala aquifer

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About