Spatio-temporal trends in snow extent and their linkage to hydro-climatological and topographical factors in the Chitral River Basin (Hindukush, Pakistan)

Ahmad, Shakeel; Israr, Muhammad; Liu, Shiyin; Hayat, Huma; Gul, Jawaria; Wajid, Sara; Ashraf, Muhammad Salman; Baig, Siddique Ullah; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad

doi:10.1080/10106049.2018.1524517

Cited by 31 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Since the Chitral river basin constitutes about 13% of glaciers whose melted flux participates mostly in streamflow of the watershed, the preferred HBV model is practically fit for application over the glaciated basin. This paper supplements prior efforts (see e.g., (Ahmad et al, 2018;Ali et al, 2015;Khalid et al, 2013;Lutz et al, 2016;Naeem et al, 2013;Shakir & Ehsan, 2016) and delivers expedient statistics to indigenous consultants for creating efficient strategies for impending sustainability and water regulations in the basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Prognosis of Hydro-Meteorological Attributes based on Simulation and Projection of Streamflow in a High-Altitude Basin using Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) Model

Burhan¹,

Usman²,

Bukhari³

et al. 2020

AQUADEMIA

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Subsistence of freshwater resources at high altitude regions has remained a paradox for stakeholder communities at both regional and global levels. To address such an issue, Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning Light (hereafter HBV) model was used to assess hydro-meteorological shifts triggered under climate change scenarios in snow dominant region of Chitral river basin. The model performed well both during calibration and validation periods with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.91 and 0.81 respectively on daily time scale in the basin. The HBV was thereafter engaged for the projection of streamflow in the Chitral river basin using projected data of four statistically downscaled climate models with four emission scenarios for the 21st century. Multi-model ensemble projections of precipitation revealed an increase of up to 165% in monsoon inception period and an increase in temperature of up to 9.5°C in winter to summer transitioning period for the 2070-2099 time slice under a high-end emission scenario. An increase of up to 122% in evapotranspiration was projected in the peak winter months for the 2070-2099 time slice under the high-end emission scenario. Attributed to the significant increases in the temperature and the liquid precipitation, it was projected that basin streamflow had potential to increase by up to 182 % in the monsoon inception period for the 2070-2099 time slice under the high-end emission scenario. It further indicated that precipitation might be falling as liquid rain most of the year, and snow will hardly accumulate in prognosticated future environements of the basin.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Prognosis of Hydro-Meteorological Attributes based on Simulation and Projection of Streamflow in a High-Altitude Basin using Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) Model

Burhan¹,

Usman²,

Bukhari³

et al. 2020

AQUADEMIA

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“…There are many small and big glaciers in the Chitral River basin but we only selected six (mostly on western edge of the river basin) of those having an area greater than 20 km 2 . Key characteristics of the Chitral River basin are given in one of our previous study by Ahmad et al (2018). Name or codes, geographical location, area and elevation ranges (on the basis of DEM and Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI, version 6; RGI 2017)) of the six studied glaciers are presented in Figure 1 and Table 1.…”

Section: Geographical Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Trends of annual precipitation and mean temperature from Chitral basin may be regarded as stable during the study period. A seasonal trend analysis by the Ahmad et al (2018) has revealed a significant increase in the mean temperature which may be the reason of gradual snout retreat, loss of mass balance and ELA rise in glaciers.…”

Section: Climate Trends Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018

et al. 2020

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Glaciers in the northern Pakistan are a distinctive source of freshwater for the irrigation, drinking and industrial water supplies of the people living in those regions and downstream. These glaciers are under a direct global warming impact as indicated in many previous studies. In this study, we estimated the glacier dynamics in terms of Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA), mass balance and the snout position variation using remote sensing data between 2001 and 2018. Six glaciers, having area ≥ 20 km2 each, situated in the Chitral region (Hindukush Mountains) were investigated in this study. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and available cloud-free continuous series of Landsat and Sentinel the entire study area was a retreat of -231 ± 140 m. No obvious relationship was found between the glacier variation trends and the available gauged climatic data possibly due to the presence of debris cover in ablation zones of all the studied glaciers which provides insulation and reduces the immediate climatic effects.

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“…On the other hand, as a result of global warming the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water has been increased which lead to an increase in the global precipitation [4][5][6][7][8][9]. In this context, a common way to have a knowledge of future extreme precipitation events is to investigate the trend in the longduration time series of historical records [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. On the other hand, using the outputs of climate models such as global circulation models (GCMs) can provide a more reliable and more realistic picture of the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

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The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.

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Spatio-temporal trends in snow extent and their linkage to hydro-climatological and topographical factors in the Chitral River Basin (Hindukush, Pakistan)

Cited by 31 publications

References 36 publications

Prognosis of Hydro-Meteorological Attributes based on Simulation and Projection of Streamflow in a High-Altitude Basin using Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) Model

Prognosis of Hydro-Meteorological Attributes based on Simulation and Projection of Streamflow in a High-Altitude Basin using Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) Model

Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

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