Spatio-temporal pattern prediction of the biocapacity in the Shiyang River Basin on the basis of the CA-Markov model

Dongxia, 岳东霞 Yue; Chao, 杨超 Yang; Baohua, 江宝骅 Jiang; Jianjun, 郭建军 Guo; Xiaofeng, 徐晓锋 Xu

doi:10.5846/stxb201711302153

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…However, to cope with resource and environmental problems arising from rapid urbanization and high-speed economic development, it is important to explore the coordinated development of coastal ecosystems and human activities in the future. Most studies on carrying capacity simulation adopt the system dynamics model to explore the relationship between carrying capacity and influencing factors and to predict its trends (Xing et al, 2019), or use the ecosystem service simulation method with land use simulation as the entry point (Yue et al, 2019). In the international field of sustainable science research, scenario analysis methods have gradually advanced in modeling future development (Duinker and Greig, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of coastal resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River delta coastal zone based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Liu

Huang

2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Study of resource and environmental carrying capacity is an important research content of sustainable development science and the theoretical support for land space optimization. Existing research theories need to be deepened, and spatial simulation studies are relatively lacking. This study aimed to assess the current and future resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Delta region’s coastal zone and enhance sustainable development by exploring the application of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSPs) scenarios at the spatial pattern scale in regional resource and environmental carrying capacity simulation studies. Based on the FLUS and InVEST models, this study introduced the Coastal Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity Index (CRECC) from the dimensions of “pressure” and “support” using land use remote sensing monitoring data and SSPs scenario data. A CRECC evaluation index system and quantitative evaluation method for the Yangtze River Delta were constructed. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the CRECC of the Yangtze River Delta coastal zone increased, the carrying capacity decreased, and the spatial distribution was low in the north and high in the south. The carrying capacity under the five SSP scenarios did not improve. The mismatch between natural ecological conditions and the intensity of human activities in the shoreline area was more prominent than in the study area, with the SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios being the most obvious. The supporting indicators have a more significant influence on improving CRECC than the pressure indicators, among which the supply capacity of water resources, land resources, and atmospheric environmental quality are the main limiting factors in the process of future sustainable economic-ecological development. This study provides ideas and examples for exploring spatial and temporal predictions of resources and environmental carrying capacity in coastal zones.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of coastal resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River delta coastal zone based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Liu

Huang

2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

Zhao

Liu

Xian

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The process of rapid urbanization has intensified the conversion of different land use types, resulting in a substantial loss of ecological land and ecological security being threatened. In the context of China’s vigorous advocacy of an ecological civilization, it is important to explore future land use patterns under ecological security constraints to promote sustainable development. The insufficient consideration of land ecological security in existing land use pattern simulation studies makes it difficult to effectively promote improvement in the ecological security level. Therefore, we developed a land use simulation framework that integrates land ecological security. Taking the sustainable development of land ecosystems as the core, the land ecological security index (LESI) and ecological zoning (EZ) were determined by the pressure–state–response (PSR) model and the catastrophe progression method (CPM). Natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios were then constructed taking the LESI and EZ into consideration. The CA–Markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Guangzhou for 2030 under the two scenarios. The results showed that (1) the study area was divided into four categories: ecological core zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological optimization zone, and urban development zone, with area shares of 37.53%, 31.14%, 16.96%, and 14.37%, respectively. (2) In both scenarios, the construction land around the towns showed outward expansion; compared with the ND scenario, the construction land in the EP scenario decreased by 369.10 km2, and the woodland, grassland, and farmland areas increased by 337.04, 20.80, and 10.51 km2, respectively, which significantly improved the ecological security level. (3) In the EP scenario, the construction land in the ecological core zone, ecological buffer zone, and ecological optimization zone decreased by 85.49, 114.78, and 178.81 km2, respectively, and no new construction land was added in the ecological core zone, making the land use pattern of the EP scenario more reasonable. The results of the study have confirmed that the land use pattern simulation framework integrating land ecological security can effectively predict land use patterns in different future scenarios. This study can provide suggestions and guidance for managers to use in formulating ecological protection policies and preparing territorial spatial planning.

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The Evolution Pattern and Simulation of Land Use in the Beijing Municipal Administrative Center (Tongzhou District)

Liu

Shi

Zheng

et al. 2022

Journal of Resources and Ecology

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Spatio-temporal pattern prediction of the biocapacity in the Shiyang River Basin on the basis of the CA-Markov model

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Simulation of coastal resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River delta coastal zone based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Simulation of coastal resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River delta coastal zone based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

The Evolution Pattern and Simulation of Land Use in the Beijing Municipal Administrative Center (Tongzhou District)

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