Spatio-Temporal Occurrence Modeling of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1: A Case Study in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Tran, Chinh C.; Yost, Russell S.; Yanagida, John F.; Saksena, Sumeet; Fox, Jefferson; Sultana, Nargis

doi:10.3390/ijgi2041106

Cited by 15 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…To model both continuous and discrete observations, a descriptive statistical method based the variational-Laplace approach has been presented for inference regarding spatiotemporal processes [24,27]. For visualization of spatiotemporal distributions, the geostatistical approach called Kriging has been applied widely to develop monthly predictive maps [28]. From the presented works, statistical and data visualization methods play important roles in the estimation of conflict evolution but are applicable to limited data types, such as geographical coordinates, timestamps and single attributes.…”

Section: Modelling Of Conflict Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data Association at the Level of Narrative Plots to Support Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolvement of Conflict: A Case Study in Nigeria

Han

Tian

et al. 2016

IJGI

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Abstract:Open data sources regarding conflicts are increasingly enriched by broad social media; these yield a volume of information that exceeds our process capabilities. One of the critical factors is that knowledge extraction from mixed data formats requires systematic, sophisticated modeling. Here, we propose using text mining modeling tools for building associations of heterogeneous semi-structured data to enhance decision-making. Using narrative plots, text representation, and cluster analysis, we provide a data association framework that can mine spatiotemporal data that occur in similar contexts. The framework contains the following steps: (1) a novel text representation is presented to vectorize the textual semantics by learning both co-word features and word orders in a unified form; (2) text clustering technology is employed to associate events of interest with similar events in historical logs, based solely on narrative plots of the events; and (3) the inferred activity procedure is visualized via an evolving spatiotemporal map through the Kriging algorithm. Our results demonstrate that the approach enables deeper discrimination into the trends underlying conflicts and possesses a narrative reasoning forward prediction with a precision of 0.4817, in addition to a high consistency with the conclusions of existing studies.

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Section: Modelling Of Conflict Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data Association at the Level of Narrative Plots to Support Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolvement of Conflict: A Case Study in Nigeria

Han

Tian

et al. 2016

IJGI

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“…Subsequent research in Thailand focusing on mosquito-borne diseases [ 8 , 9 ] and in Vietnam on avian influenza (H5N1) [ 10 , 11 ] (the latter supported separately by the NSF’s Coupled Human Natural Systems Program) are framed explicitly on the basis of the EIDs research ’blue print’ that emerged from this symposium [ 7 ]. Fundamentally, the Wilcox-Gubler-Colwell model represents a social ecological systems framework for investigating the roles and interaction of urbanisation, agricultural intensification and habitat degradation, as well as their associated drivers and influences, in infectious disease re-emergence or emergence.…”

Section: History Of Ecohealth In the Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecohealth research in Southeast Asia: past, present and the way forward

et al. 2015

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Ecohealth is a comprehensive approach to understanding health at its human, animal and environmental interface in a socio-ecological systems context. This approach was introduced widely in Southeast Asia (SEA) by the Canadian International Development Research Centre (IDRC) in the late 2000s. Aimed at addressing the problem of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), numerous such projects and activities have been generated throughout the region. Ecohealth is increasingly converging with the One Health approach, as both movements emphasise a holistic understanding to health. We conducted a scoping review by considering all of the Ecohealth programmes, initiatives and projects that have been implemented in SEA since the introduction of the approach, and also gathered information from peer-reviewed literature. The objective of this paper is to review Ecohealth activities within SEA over the last 10 years to address the lessons learned, challenges faced and the way forward for Ecohealth in the region. Activities range from those focusing purely on capacity, projects focusing on research and projects covering both. Achievements to date include, for example, research contributing to the field of infectious diseases in relation to social ecological factors and associated urbanisation and agricultural intensification. Challenges remain at the project design and implementation level, in the available capacity and coordination to develop Ecohealth research teams in the countries, gauging teams’ assimilation of Ecohealth’s underlying tenets and their translation into sustainable disease prevention and control, as well as in the ability to scale up Ecohealth projects. We suggest that the way forward for Ecohealth should be from a regional perspective in terms of research, training and policy translation using Ecohealth in combination with the One Health approach.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2049-9957-4-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…The framework we outline here builds upon and extends existing work to model spatial spread of animal disease [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. Our work highlights the important and interacting roles of geography, and the spatial aspects of host diversity, host distribution, long and short distance movement, human-livestock interactions, and possible interventions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A Flexible Spatial Framework for Modeling Spread of Pathogens in Animals with Biosurveillance and Disease Control Applications

LaBute

McMahon

Brown

et al. 2014

IJGI

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Biosurveillance activities focus on acquiring and analyzing epidemiological and biological data to interpret unfolding events and predict outcomes in infectious disease outbreaks. We describe a mathematical modeling framework based on geographically aligned data sources and with appropriate flexibility that partitions the modeling of disease spread into two distinct but coupled levels. A top-level stochastic simulation is defined on a network with nodes representing user-configurable geospatial -patches‖. Intra-patch disease spread is treated with differential equations that assume uniform mixing within the patch. We use U.S. county-level aggregated data on animal populations and parameters from the literature to simulate epidemic spread of two strikingly different animal diseases agents: foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza. Results demonstrate the capability of this framework to leverage low-fidelity data while producing meaningful output to inform biosurveillance and disease control measures. For example, we show that the possible magnitude of an outbreak is sensitive to the starting location of the outbreak, OPEN ACCESS ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2014, 3 639 highlighting the strong geographic dependence of livestock and poultry infectious disease epidemics and the usefulness of effective biosurveillance policy. The ability to compare different diseases and host populations across the geographic landscape is important for decision support applications and for assessing the impact of surveillance, detection, and mitigation protocols.

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Spatio-Temporal Occurrence Modeling of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1: A Case Study in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Data Association at the Level of Narrative Plots to Support Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolvement of Conflict: A Case Study in Nigeria

Data Association at the Level of Narrative Plots to Support Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolvement of Conflict: A Case Study in Nigeria

Ecohealth research in Southeast Asia: past, present and the way forward

A Flexible Spatial Framework for Modeling Spread of Pathogens in Animals with Biosurveillance and Disease Control Applications

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