Spatio-temporal epidemiology of animal and human rabies in northern South Africa between 1998 and 2017

Abstract

Background Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease that is maintained in domestic dogs and wildlife populations in the Republic of South Africa. A retrospective study was conducted to improve understanding of the dynamics of rabies in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species, in relation to the ecology for three northern provinces of South Africa (Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North-West) between 1998 and 2017. Methods A descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for human and animal rabies. Dog rabies cases were analyzed using spatio-temporal scan statistics. The reproductive number (Rt) was estimated for the identified disease clusters. A phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the genome sequences of rabies viruses isolated from dogs, jackals, and an African civet, and Bayesian evolutionary analysis using a strict time clock model. Several ecological and socio-economic variables associated with dog rabies were modeled using univariate analyses with zero-inflated negative binomial regression and multivariable spatial analyses using the integrated nested Laplace approximation for two time periods: 1998–2002 and 2008–2012. Results Human rabies cases increased in 2006 following an increase in dog rabies cases; however, the human cases declined in the next year while dog rabies cases fluctuated. Ten disease clusters of dog rabies were identified, and utilizing the phylogenetic tree, the dynamics of animal rabies over 20 years was elucidated. In 2006, a virus strain that re-emerged in eastern Limpopo Province caused the large and persistent dog rabies outbreaks in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces. Several clusters included a rabies virus variant maintained in jackals in Limpopo Province, and the other variant in dogs widely distributed. The widely distributed variant maintained in jackal populations in North-West Province caused an outbreak in dogs in 2014. The Rt was high when the disease clusters were associated with either multiple virus strains or multiple animal species. High-risk areas included Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces characterized by woodlands and high temperatures and precipitation. Conclusion Canine rabies was maintained mainly in dog populations but was also associated with jackal species. Rural communities in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces were at high risk of canine rabies originating from dogs.

Genomic Surveillance of Rabies Virus in Georgian Canines

“…The phylogenetic analyses also failed to show a distinction between the RABV strains infecting domestic dogs and those that infect jackals. This result implies that jackals are part of the rabies transmission chain in domestic dog populations, an interpretation that is consistent with the results of other studies [ 54 , 55 ]. Consequently, efforts to eliminate dog rabies in Georgia and other Eastern European countries are unlikely to yield lasting results unless the RABV reservoir in jackals is addressed simultaneously.…”

Spatiotemporal distributions of animal rabies disease outbreaks from 2018–2023 in western Amhara region, Ethiopia

“…It was noted that animals like cattle, goats, sheep, and equines in the western Amhara region are at risk of contracting the disease from rabid dogs due to grazing in open elds where they may come into contact with free-roaming dogs. The ndings were similar to those of studies conducted in Ethiopia (10,(12)(13)(14), Nepal (15), Sri Lanka (16), and South Africa (17). This could be due to the existence of a large number of stray dogs and insu cient vaccination coverage in the region.…”

Rabies in a postpandemic world: resilient reservoirs, redoubtable riposte, recurrent roadblocks, and resolute recidivism

“…This was especially alarming, given the zero human deaths recorded in KZN during 2014 from the BMGF supported project (LeRoux et al 2018 ). In addition, although dogs are the primary RABV reservoir in South Africa, jackals are also associated with the disease (Mogano et al 2022 ; Ngoepe et al 2022 ). With the maintenance of canine rabies and in the absence of broader MDV, the impacts for proper health care delivery and PEP after animal exposures remain substantial (Whitbread et al 2022 ).…”