Spatio-temporal analysis of the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Araçatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Bermudi, Patricia Marques Moralejo; Guirado, Marluci Monteiro; Rodas, Lílian Aparecida Colebrusco; Dibo, Margareth Regina; Neto, Francisco Chiaravalloti

doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0505-2017

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…From random effects, we get a value of 526 km for the empirically derived correlation range . This indicates that the distance at which the correlation is close to 0.1952, we can say that the data are characterized by a strong spatial correlation which diminishes gradually with distance, This result is in line with the study by [20], [27], [28]. was 0.276 and was 0.0176.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis in human in an endemic area of Amhara regional state, Ethiopia

Godana¹,

Mwalili

Orwa

2019

PLoS ONE

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Visceral Leishmaniasis is a very dangerous form of leishmaniasis and, shorn of appropriate diagnosis and handling, it leads to death and physical disability. Depicting the spatiotemporal pattern of disease is important for disease regulator and deterrence strategies. Spatiotemporal modeling has distended broad veneration in recent years. Spatial and spatiotemporal disease modeling is extensively used for the analysis of registry data and usually articulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. In this study, we have developed the hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling of the infected rate of Visceral leishmaniasis in Human (VLH). We applied the Stochastics Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach for a spatiotemporal hierarchical model for Visceral leishmaniasis in human (VLH) that involves a GF and a state process is associated with an autoregressive order one temporal dynamics and the spatially correlated error term, along with the effect of land shield, metrological, demographic, socio-demographic and geographical covariates in an endemic area of Amhara regional state, Ethiopia. The model encompasses a Gaussian Field (GF), affected by an error term, and a state process described by a first-order autoregressive dynamic model and spatially correlated innovations. A hierarchical model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to the infected rate of Visceral leishmaniasis in human (VLH) weekly data from January 2015 to December 2017 using the R package R-INLA, which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. We found that the mean weekly temperature had a significant positive association with infected rate of VLH. Moreover, net migration rate, clean water coverage, average number of households, population density per square kilometer, average number of persons per household unit, education coverage, health facility coverage, mortality rate, and sex ratio had a significant association with the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis (VLH) in the region. In this study, we investigated the dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of Visceral leishmaniasis in Human (VLH) through a stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE) using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Our study had confirmed both metrological, demographic, sociodemographic and geographic covariates had a significant association with the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis (VLH) in the region.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis in human in an endemic area of Amhara regional state, Ethiopia

Godana¹,

Mwalili

Orwa

2019

PLoS ONE

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“…Its authors suggest that the reduction in cases occurred possibly as a result of control actions having been implemented. 10 Other studies, conducted in the city of Aracaju, SE, between 1999 and 2008, and in the state of Piauí, between 2007 and 2011, found the same cyclical pattern: a peak in the number of VL cases and incidence approximately every five years, which can be explained by the long-course characteristic of the disease, with signs of infection occurring later. [11][12][13] Despite variable incidence rates having been identified in the three periods studied, incidence in the majority of Fortaleza's neighborhoods was below 5 cases per 100,000 inhab.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Leishmaniose visceral: distribuição temporal e espacial em Fortaleza, Ceará, 2007-2017

Almeida

Cavalcante

Moreno

et al. 2020

Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde

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Resumo Objetivo: Analisar a tendência temporal e descrever a distribuição espacial da leishmaniose visceral (LV) em Fortaleza, 2007-2017. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, mediante regressão temporal segmentada e mapeamento temático. Resultados: No período 2007-2017, foram confirmados 1.660 casos novos e 97 óbitos. No período 2007-2010, a incidência foi ascendente (variação percentual anual [Annual Percent Change], APC=8,7% - IC95% -3,3;34,1), enquanto a mortalidade (APC=-25,9 - IC95% -48,5; -10,6) e a letalidade (APC=-33,0 - IC95% -53,7;-17,6), descendentes. No período 2010-2015, a incidência reduziu (APC=-15,8 - IC95% -25,1;-4,0), mas a mortalidade (APC=18,7 - IC95% 9,4;50,6) e a letalidade (APC=40,1 - IC95% 22,5;72,0) apresentaram tendência de crescimento. Em 2015-2017, decresceram a incidência (APC=-24,6 - IC95% -36,2;-10,3) e a mortalidade (APC= -44,6 - IC95% -58,8;-17,6); a letalidade se manteve estável (APC=-13,5 - IC95% -38,7;3,8). Houve concentração de bairros com incidência elevada na região oeste da cidade; porém, a mortalidade e a letalidade não apresentaram padrões espaciais definidos. Conclusão: A LV é endêmica em Fortaleza, embora tenha havido declínio no último triênio estudado.

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“…Therefore, the governmental strategies developed to combat leishmaniasis address the epidemiological characteristics faced by each region and can vary among states. For example, in São Paulo, the disease has been present since 1999 10 , while in Paraná, to the best of our knowledge, there have been no reported cases in native reservoirs or humans 11 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Piacatu is a municipality in the northwest region of São Paulo state (21° 35' 31" S, 50° 35' 56" W) with a population of 5,846 inhabitants and a total area of 232,488 km², of which 10% corresponds to urban areas and 90% to rural areas. The tropical climate is characterized by dry winters and rainy summers, with temperatures ranging from 18°C to ≥22°C 10 . The region is classified as endemic for VL, with reported cases in reservoirs and humans and the presence of the vector Lutzomyia longipalpis 7 (Figure 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and seroepidemiology of canine visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic Southeast Brazilian area

Rodrigues

Benitez

Sevá

et al. 2020

Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop.

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Introduction: Canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) is a public health problem, and its prevalence is associated with the coexistence of vectors and reservoirs. CVL is a protozoonosis caused by Leishmania infantum that is endemic in the southeast region of Brazil. Thus, vector and canine reservoir control strategies are needed to reduce its burden. This study aimed to verify the CVL seroprevalence and epidemiology in a municipality in Southeast Brazil to initiate disease control strategies. Methods: A total of 833 dogs were subjected to Dual Path Platform (DPP) testing and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. For seropositive dogs, epidemiological aspects were investigated using a questionnaire and a global position system. The data were submitted to simple logistic regression, kernel estimation, and Bernoulli spatial scan statistical analysis. Results: The overall CVL-confirmed seroprevalence was 16.08%. The 28.93% in the DPP screening test was associated with dogs maintained in backyards with trees, shade, animal and/or bird feces, and contact with other dogs and cats, with sick dogs showing the highest chances of infection (odds ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.38-1.98), especially in residences with elderly people. A spatial analysis identified two hotspot regions and detected two clusters in the study area. Conclusions: Our results demonstrated that residences with elderly people and the presence of trees, shade, feces, and pet dogs and cats increased an individual's risk of developing CVL. The major regions where preventive strategies for leishmaniasis were to be initiated in the endemic area were identified in two clusters.

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Spatio-temporal analysis of the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Araçatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Cited by 15 publications

References 28 publications

Dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis in human in an endemic area of Amhara regional state, Ethiopia

Dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis in human in an endemic area of Amhara regional state, Ethiopia

Leishmaniose visceral: distribuição temporal e espacial em Fortaleza, Ceará, 2007-2017

Spatial and seroepidemiology of canine visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic Southeast Brazilian area

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