Spatio-temporal analysis of leptospirosis incidence and its relationship with hydroclimatic indicators in northeastern Argentina

López, María Luisa García; Müller, Gabriela V.; Lovino, Miguel A.; Gómez, Aarón; Sione, Walter Fabian; Aragonés, Luís

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133651

Cited by 24 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The temperature may affect leptospire virulence 37 , and the transmission rate. The temperature effect observed in our study is in line with the previous studies 23,54,55 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Chadsuthi

Chalvet‐Monfray

Wiratsudakul

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

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“…The temperature may affect leptospire virulence 37 , and the transmission rate. The temperature effect observed in our study is in line with the previous studies 23,54,55 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Chadsuthi

Chalvet‐Monfray

Wiratsudakul

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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“…Typically, massive outbreaks of leptospirosis in urban settings are associated with the abundance of rodents, being asymptomatic carriers of leprospires. In rural areas, outbreaks are linked to agricultural processes, such as animal breeding, while seasonal peaks exist in most affected areas suggesting that numerous environmental factors, such as torrential rains, floods, and cyclones may act as “triggers” of the disease outbreaks [ 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 ]. Environmental changes in human habitat conditions and urbanization combined with climate changes are the most important risk factors in the occurrence and spread of present and future leptospirosis outbreaks [ 18 , 36 , 37 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Risk of Leptospirosis in Animals: The Case of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation

Захарова¹,

Korennoy

Toropova³

et al. 2020

Pathogens

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Leptospirosis is a zoonotic natural focal disease caused by the pathogenic bacteria Leptospira. Its spread is related to certain ecological factors. The aim of the current research was to assess potential exposure to the infection as a function of environmental determinants in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation. We applied environmental niche modeling using leptospirosis cases in livestock and wild animals in 1995–2019 with regard to a set of landscape, climatic, and socioeconomic variables, both for the current climate and for the projected climate for 2041–2060. The MaxEnt model performed well (AUC = 0.930), with the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, mean diurnal range, land cover type, and altitude being the most contributing variables. Consequent zoning based on the proportion of high-risk cells within each administrative unit suggested that five out of the 36 districts of the Republic are at high risk in the current climate conditions, with three more districts expected to demonstrate a high risk by 2060. This study presents the first-ever attempt at leptospirosis ecological modeling in Russia. Its results correspond well to the findings of other authors and underline the importance of considering ecological factors when conducting a leptospirosis risk assessment.

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“…A low number of confirmed cases occurred in the La Niña events during the dry season. Understanding the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) would predict leptospirosis outbreaks early (42). On the other hand, the high number of cases was also due to occupational exposure to agricultural and livestock activities during the rainy season, even when flooding occurs (43).…”

Section: Temporal Analysis Of Weather Data and Human Leptospirosis Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human Leptospirosis Outbreak: A Year After the ‘Cempaka’ Tropical Cyclone

Syakbanah

Fuad

2021

JKL

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Introduction: The ‘Cempaka’ Tropical Cyclone hit south Java in November 2017, causing heavy rainfall and severe flooding. Changes in climate variability and extreme weather events may shift the geographic and seasonal patterns of neglected tropical diseases such as leptospirosis. This study analyses the Spatiotemporal pattern between flooding, weather, and human leptospirosis cases after a tropical cyclone. Methods: This was an ecological study that collected monthly flooding data, weather data, and human leptospirosis data cases per village from November 2017 to October 2018, a year after the ‘Cempaka’ Tropical Cyclone in Bantul. Spatio-temporal analyses were calculated to 0-3 months lag by Pearson's correlation, spatial mapping, and time-series graphs. Results and Discussion: As many as 99 people infected with leptospirosis were found in all 75 villages in Bantul. The villages affected by flooding were 44% and leptospirosis cases spread in 68% of villages. A 1-month lag (r = 0.6849; p < 0.05) and 3-months lag (r = 0.6666; p < 0.05) of relative humidity along with a 1-month lag (r = 0.7451; p < 0.05) and 3-months lag (r = 0.8561; p < 0.05) of rainfall were found to be correlated to human leptospirosis cases. Heavy rain due to the Cempaka Tropical Cyclone caused flooding and transmission of Leptospira bacteria into the water and heightened contact between humans, animals, and the environment. Conclusion: It is found that flooding, relative humidity, and rainfall after the Cempaka Tropical Cyclone would be followed by human leptospirosis outbreaks 1 and 3 months later. Cross-sectoral cooperation of public health authorities should integrate climatic information as an early warning for disaster-prone areas and community groups at risk.

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Spatio-temporal analysis of leptospirosis incidence and its relationship with hydroclimatic indicators in northeastern Argentina

Cited by 24 publications

References 35 publications

The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Environmental Risk of Leptospirosis in Animals: The Case of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation

Human Leptospirosis Outbreak: A Year After the ‘Cempaka’ Tropical Cyclone

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