Spatially coherent flood risk assessment based on long-term continuous simulation with a coupled model chain

Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Dũng, Nguyễn Việt; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Kreibich, Heidi; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.021

Cited by 126 publications

(159 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…For the HadCM3 GCM as well as the HadRM3 RCM, three realizations were included for "normal" climate sensitivity (Q0), "low" climate sensitivity (Q3) and "high" climate sensitivity (Q16) to the external forcing (e.g. greenhouse gas concentrations, by perturbing HadRM3 internal parameters; see Collins et al, 2006). The most recent set of climate scenario data are projections delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments, Jacob et al, 2014), an internationally coordinated framework to produce improved regional climate change projections with a focus on climate change impact and adaptation studies.…”

Section: The Climate Forcing Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The bias correction was done using a quantile mapping method (cf. Wilcke et al, 2013;Gobiet et al, 2015). The combinations of GCMs and RCMs used in the study are listed in Appendix A.…”

Section: The Climate Forcing Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Investigation of climate change impacts on floods using the results of different RCMs as climate boundary conditions was carried out by Huang et al (2013), Hattermann et al (2011) and Falter et al (2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Hattermann

Huang

Burghoff

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

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Section: The Climate Forcing Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The bias correction was done using a quantile mapping method (cf. Wilcke et al, 2013;Gobiet et al, 2015). The combinations of GCMs and RCMs used in the study are listed in Appendix A.…”

Section: The Climate Forcing Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Hattermann

Huang

Burghoff

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…Continuous simulation and/or heterogeneous rainfall fields are now well under investigation ( [4], [6], [14], [15]…). Continuous simulation does solve methodological problems, by allowing to take into account initial conditions (soil moisture and residual level of water in flood storage facilities), and by reproducing the real behavior of a set of flood mitigation structures under realistic heterogeneous rainfall events.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic rainfall fields time-series for probabilistic flood hazard assessment

2016

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Abstract. Probabilistic flood hazard assessment are usually carried out through juxtaposed reach-wise hydraulic simulations, using as input "representative" hydrographs for the studied return periods -at least by their peak discharge. However, reach-wise approaches have drawbacks, especially in the presence of natural or man-made singularities. An approach based on continuous simulation is developed to better assess flood hazard at the scale of the catchment and of the flood regime. A stochastic rainfall fields generator yields continuous times series, thus keeping the variability of the rainfall fields. Catchment-wise rainfall-runoff modelling, completed when necessary by a hydraulic model, allows to reproduce the individual and combined response of each feature to a heterogeneous rainfall event. The current CPU performances allow to process long rainfall time-series, but the codes have to be adapted to deal with unusually long input and output files. Local flood quantiles are then derived from discharge time-series, and flooding probability can be derived from local inundation frequency. This approach can be used in all contexts, urban floods or catchment-scale management; the modules have just to be chosen accordingly. This approach offers many perspectives, and in particular to better estimate local expected annual damages using damages time-series and multivariate damage curves.

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“…Therefore, heterogeneous flood scenarios, which take into account the spatial variability of flood events, should be considered in flood risk analysis [6,8,9]. As the number of past observed flood events leading to flood damages is usually low, 2005 and June 2013) where each event led to severe economic losses [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generation of Spatially Heterogeneous Flood Events in an Alpine Region—Adaptation and Application of a Multivariate Modelling Procedure

Schneeberger¹,

Steinberger²

2018

Hydrology

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Flooding often has a negative impact on society. In particular, widespread flood events can cause a lot of damage. These events are often spatially and temporally heterogeneous and should be duly considered for an appropriate analysis of flooding. Therefore, a conditional multivariate approach is adapted and applied in order to (i) contribute to a better understanding of the spatial characteristics of fluvial floods and (ii) to deliver sets of synthetically generated flood events. The present paper focuses on a simulation procedure consisting of careful data preparation and selection and the application of a conditional multivariate approach. The conditional approach is adapted to account for the seasonality of runoff data. Model checks attuned to the model are presented to ensure the consistence of simulated and observed data. The Austrian Province Vorarlberg was chosen as the study area. A thorough data analysis of runoff time series showed that the hydrological behaviour is characterized by a strong seasonality that was considered within the applied modelling procedure. The analysis of the spatial dependence of high river flows identified regions where floods likely occur simultaneously and regions with low spatial dependence. The main result of the modelling procedure, a large set of widespread flood events, was successfully generated.

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Spatially coherent flood risk assessment based on long-term continuous simulation with a coupled model chain

Cited by 126 publications

References 30 publications

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Stochastic rainfall fields time-series for probabilistic flood hazard assessment

Generation of Spatially Heterogeneous Flood Events in an Alpine Region—Adaptation and Application of a Multivariate Modelling Procedure

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Spatially coherent flood risk assessment based on long-term continuous simulation with a coupled model chain

Cited by 126 publications

References 30 publications

Brief Communication: An update of the article &quot;Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany&quot;

Brief Communication: An update of the article &quot;Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany&quot;

Stochastic rainfall fields time-series for probabilistic flood hazard assessment

Generation of Spatially Heterogeneous Flood Events in an Alpine Region—Adaptation and Application of a Multivariate Modelling Procedure

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Product

Resources

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Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"