Brief Communication: An update of the article &amp;quot;Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany&amp;quot;

Hattermann, Fred F.; Huang, Shaochun; Burghoff, O.; Hoffmann, Peter; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016

Cited by 21 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(22 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…less than 10% in magnitude) with similar spatial patterns to high flows for all warming levels (figures 1(g)-(i)). It is worth noting that a relatively small change of 15% in annual maximum may lead to substantial changes in flood return periods with strong effects on adaptation planning (Hattermann et al 2016). As for high flows, the strongest decreases of floods are seen in the Mediterranean.…”

Section: Relative Changes For 15 2 and 3 K Global Warmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

Thober

Kumar

Wanders

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

137

126

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from −11% at 1.5 K up to −30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow melt equivalent decreases flood events in this region. Neglecting uncertainties originating from internal climate variability, downscaling technique, and hydrologic model parameters, the contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

show abstract

Section: Relative Changes For 15 2 and 3 K Global Warmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

Thober

Kumar

Wanders

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

137

126

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Therefore, it is reasonable to use hydrological performance indicators to evaluate the suitability of climate simulations, particularly for quantitative impact studies, and to create a subset of models for the impact assessment. Another way to deal with low performance in the simulation of extremes in impact studies is to analyse changes in return periods of extreme events (Hattermann et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile

Liersch

Tecklenburg

Rust

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction) to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa). WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970–1999) in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.

show abstract

“…crop yields) at the regional scale. SWIM has a record of successful applications in flood related studies (Huang et al, 2013;Hattermann et al, 2014Hattermann et al, , 2016. SWIM uses a semi-distributed spatial discretisation approach and generally operates at a daily time step, but is able to simulate runoff related processes (e.g.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future flood risk in the Danube region using an open loss modelling framework

Schröter¹,

Steinhausen²,

Wortmann³

et al. 2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate informee planning of adaptation actions requires consistent and reliable information about future risks as well as appropropriate tools and services to support comprehensive flood risk assessment and management. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite to provide spatially consistent information on current and future extreme events and to quantify climate risks. The Future Danube Model is composed of exchangeable modules for climate input, hydrology, inundation, flood damage and risk. It is implemented within an open source platform, the OASIS Loss Modelling Framework. The application of the Future Danube Model is showcased for the assessment of current and future flood risk to residential buildings in the Danube region. Outputs from Global and Regional Climate Models for a reference period and three future climate periods are used to drive the model chain. Results show predominantly an increase in peak discharges across the Danube basin with exception for the Moldava and Tisza rivers. Future fluvial flood risk is shown to most likely increase in the future which is more pronounced for the high-end RCP84 scenario.

show abstract

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Cited by 21 publications

References 18 publications

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile

Current and future flood risk in the Danube region using an open loss modelling framework

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About