Spatial Variation of Sub-national Fertility Trends in Austria, Germany and Switzerland

Abstract

Sub-national trends in fertility are of great importance for policy makers and regional planners. This paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical framework for policy makers, taking into account past and present trends in fertility, as well as their theoretical underpinnings. These will, we argue, be crucial in determining future trajectories and potential political responses to them.The theoretical part of the paper deals with the factors that may influence fertility differences at the sub-national level, including decisions and life course trajectories at the individual level, as well as contextual socio-economic phenomena operating at different geographical levels (local, regional, national, global). This is followed by an empirical section, which takes the Eurostat publications on spatial fertility differences inEuropeas a starting point. In an attempt to overcome the limitations of these reports – both in terms of the lack of geographic detail and the short time span covered – we provide more thorough overviews for Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Using historical data from the Princeton European Fertility Project and other sources, we have been able to reconstruct comparative regional fertility time series for the past 150 years. Finally, we present a case study on local fertility development in the municipalities and unified rural communities of the German state ofLower Saxonyand the districts of the German city ofBremen.Based on the results of this analysis, we conclude that the recent degree of fertility convergence between regions within countries – particularly at the macro-regional level – is, indeed, striking. However, taking a long-term perspective, we are able to identify some substantial time periods over the last 150 years in which regional fertility levels diverged. This implies that the current picture must not necessarily constitute Fukuyama’s “end of history” over the coming decades. Moreover, the study of local-level data reveals that, in contrast to the overall macro-regional fertility convergence process in all three countries, a trend towards divergence can be observed within the city of Bremen. This demonstrates that local divergence can run parallel to overall regional convergence.

Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe

“…National patterns are, however, composites of sub-national regional patterns. As regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility outcomes (Basten et al 2012 ; de Beer and Deerenberg 2007 ; Kulu 2013 ), exploring this dimension might improve our understanding of observed national-level patterns in educational gradients in fertility (Snyder 2001 ). A perspective beyond the national level also has value in light of globalisation theories predicting that affluent, developed sub-national regions across countries will become more similar to each other over time, while regional differences in living conditions within countries will increase (Veltz 2014 ).…”

Regional Chances, Regional Constraints?: Transition to Adulthood and Intergenerational Ties in Regional Context

“…The analytic strategy encompassed three steps. Since regional differences in the dependent variable could be the direct result of regional characteristics (“context effects”) or of differences in the local population (“composition effects”; Basten et al, 2011), the analytic strategy has been to first depict composition effects only by controlling for individual-level characteristics. In a second step, we then accounted for context effects by separately integrating regional indicators into the multilevel models using individual-level controls.…”

“…While country-comparative studies have become well established in both life-course and family research, systematic analyses of regional differences are still an emerging field (see, for instance, Basten, Huinink, & Klüsener, 2011; Manatschal, 2011; Robert-Nicoud, 2014). As historically grown subnational units, regions and their political, economic, and cultural particularities are subject to path dependency.…”

“…The main factors of interest in the present article are the child’s opportunities and needs, as well as the cultural–contextual factors (represented by regional characteristics in welfare policy, labor market, and culture). The latter may impact intergenerational relations directly in the form of contextual effects (represented by the arrow marked “1”) or indirectly, that is, in the form of composition effects through individuals’ life-course situations (represented by the two arrows marked “2”; see Basten et al, 2011).…”

Shifting links in the relationship between education and fertility

“…Local opportunity structures have been put forward as an explanation for regional fertility patterns (Basten, Huinink, & Klüsener, 2011; Campisi, Kulu, Mikolai, Klüsener, & Myrskylä, 2020; Hank, 2001, 2002; Kulu, 2010; Kulu & Washbrook, 2014). Opportunity structures include both the indirect costs of childrearing through opportunity costs, which depend on the amount of competing activities to childrearing (e.g., a professional career and leisure activities) and the availability of childcare services, as well as the direct costs of children such as the cost of commodities and services (Hank & Kreyenfeld, 2003; Kulu & Washbrook, 2014).…”