Systematic comparisons of fertility developments based on education, gender and country context are rare. Using harmonized register data, we compare cohort total fertility and ultimate childlessness by gender and educational attainment for cohorts born beginning in 1940 in four Nordic countries. Cohort fertility (CTF) initially declined in all four countries, although for cohorts born in the 1950s and later, the CTF remained stable or declined only modestly. Childlessness, which had been increasing, has plateaued in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Women’s negative educational gradient in relation to total fertility has vanished, except in Finland, while men’s positive gradient has persisted. The highest level of men’s childlessness appears among the least educated. In the oldest female cohorts, childlessness was highest among the highly educated, but these patterns have changed over the cohorts as childlessness has increased among the low educated and remained relatively stable among higher educated women. In Denmark, Norway and Sweden, childlessness is now highest among the least educated women. We witness both a new gender similarity and persistent (among men) and new (among women) educational disparities in childbearing outcomes in the Nordic region. Overall, the number of low educated has decreased remarkably over time. These population segments face increasing social and economic disadvantages that are reflected as well in their patterns of family formation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-018-9492-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

It has been argued that preferences for the sex of children would be small or non‐existing in relatively gender equal societies. However, previous studies have suggested that a stronger preference for having daughter exists in Scandinavian countries, which are frequently noted for being among the most gender equal societies in the world. Combining new register data on birth rates by sex of the previous children and recent survey data on couples’ stated preferences for the sex of children, we show that the preference for daughters has increased in Sweden over the last decade. In addition to the stronger preference for having daughters among two‐child mothers documented in previous research, our findings show that during the previous decade this preference was noticeable also among one‐child parents. Despite Swedish society being known for holding gender equal social norms, interviewed parents openly expressed some degree of preference for having daughters over sons.

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STUDY QUESTION Have seasonal variations in births by factors related to maternal education, age, parity and re-partnering changed over a 72-year period? SUMMARY ANSWER Seasonal variation in births has been reduced overall but also changed its pattern over the last seven decades. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The number of births varies markedly by season, but the causes of this variation are not fully understood. Seasonality of births is, in some populations, strongly influenced by sociodemographic factors. STUDY DESIGN SIZE, DURATION A longitudinal study design was used by analysing the seasonal variation in live births between 1940 and 2012, and relating it to mothers’ sociodemographic characteristics at the time of childbirth (maternal education, age, parity and re-partnering). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Register data on 6 768 810 live births in Sweden between 1940 and 2012 were used. Information on biological parents are available for more than 95% of all births. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to calculate predicted probabilities of giving birth for each calendar month. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Between 1940 and 1999, Swedish birth rates showed the typical seasonal variation with high numbers of births during the spring, and low numbers of births during the last quarter of the year. However, during the 21st century, the seasonal variation in fertility declined so that only minor variation in birth rates between February and September now remains. Still, the pattern of low birth rates at the end of the year remains and has even become more pronounced from the 1980s onwards. The characteristic ‘Christmas effect’ that used to be visible in September has vanished over the last 30 years. The roles in seasonal variation of maternal education, the mother’s age, parity and instances where the mother has re-partnered between subsequent births changed during the second half of the 20th century. From 1980s onwards, the decline in birth rates during the last quarter of the year became particularly pronounced among highly educated mothers. Over the 72 years studied, the seasonal variation among first-time mothers declined steadily and has almost disappeared at the end of the study period. Using data that cover ~180 000 births in each month, all meaningful results are statistically significant. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION The study uses data from one Nordic country only, making it difficult to draw conclusions that may hold for other countries. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The typical seasonal variation reported for Sweden between 1940 and 1999, with high numbers of births during the spring and low numbers of births during the last quarter of the year, is in line with results from most other European countries during the same time period. However, the s...

Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women's completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women's fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more indepth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education.