Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems

Moritz, Max A.; Moody, Tadashi; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Hughes, Mimi; Hall, Alex

doi:10.1029/2009gl041735

Cited by 132 publications

(146 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…Fire occurrence is favoured by low humidity and high temperature, whereas wind speed has long been recognised as the crucial factor influencing the rate of spread of wildfires (Rothermel 1972;Fosberg 1978). In addition, interactions of fuels and weather with local topography can greatly influence fire activity (Moritz et al 2010;Sharples et al 2012). Fire behaviour models incorporate information on fuels, topography and weather to predict fire spread (Sullivan 2009a(Sullivan , 2009b(Sullivan , 2009c.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

Veraverbeke

Sedano

Hook

et al. 2014

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. High temporal resolution information on burnt area is needed to improve fire behaviour and emissions models. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal anomaly and active fire product (MO(Y)D14) as input to a kriging interpolation to derive continuous maps of the timing of burnt area for 16 large wildland fires. For each fire, parameters for the kriging model were defined using variogram analysis. The optimal number of observations used to estimate a pixel's time of burning varied between four and six among the fires studied. The median standard error from kriging ranged between 0.80 and 3.56 days and the median standard error from geolocation uncertainty was between 0.34 and 2.72 days. For nine fires in the south-western US, the accuracy of the kriging model was assessed using high spatial resolution daily fire perimeter data available from the US Forest Service. For these nine fires, we also assessed the temporal reporting accuracy of the MODIS burnt area products (MCD45A1 and MCD64A1). Averaged over the nine fires, the kriging method correctly mapped 73% of the pixels within the accuracy of a single day, compared with 33% for MCD45A1 and 53% for MCD64A1. Systematic application of this algorithm to wildland fires in the future may lead to new information about vegetation, climate and topographic controls on fire behaviour.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

Veraverbeke

Sedano

Hook

et al. 2014

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…Thus a higher selectivity towards flammable fuels would be expected. Extreme fire weather could produce large wildfires whose spread is not determined by landscape structure (Salvador et al, 2005;Moritz et al, 2010). In the past the situation may have been different.…”

Section: Fire Weather Is More Important Than Landscape Pattern In Detmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape – wildfire interactions in southern Europe: Implications for landscape management

Moreira¹,

Viedma²,

Arianoutsou³

et al. 2011

Journal of Environmental Management

728

567

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Every year approx. half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with lower fire hazard. The main findings are that (1) socio-economic drivers have favoured land cover changes contributing to increasing fire hazard in the last decades, (2) large wildfires are becoming more frequent, (3) increased fire frequency is promoting homogeneous landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands; (4) landscape planning to reduce fuel loads may be successful only if fire weather conditions are not extreme. The challenges to address these problems and the policy and landscape management responses that should be adopted are discussed, along with the major knowledge gaps.

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“…Piñol et al, 1998;Good et al, 2008). However, other studies have shown that extreme fire weather could produce large fires whose spread is not determined by landscape structure (Salvador et al, 2005;Moritz et al, 2010). In this respect, the area burnt per fire event (AB) in relation to the FWI was calculated for each sub-region (not shown).…”

Section: Fwi Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece

Karali

Hatzaki

Giannakopoulos

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece, indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide, including the Mediterranean Basin, to estimate fire danger in a generalised fuel type based solely on weather observations. Here, an evaluation of the index is initially performed for the Greek territory using fire observations that cover a 15 yr period. Three critical fire risk threshold values are established for the area of Greece based on daily mean meteorological data: FWI = 15, FWI = 30 and FWI = 45, increasing from the northwest to the southeast. Subsequently, a regional climate model is employed providing input for the FWI system to investigate the impacts of climate change on fire risk for two future time periods, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Days with critical fire risk are expected to increase by as many as 50 days per year by the end of the century.

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Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems

Cited by 132 publications

References 22 publications

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

Landscape – wildfire interactions in southern Europe: Implications for landscape management

Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece

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