Spatial-temporal trends analysis of flood events in the Republic of Armenia in the context of climate change

Abstract

The primary goal of the study is to analyze the spatial-temporal trends and distribution of flood events in the context of climate change in Armenia. For that purpose, some meteorological parameters, physical-geographical factors and the flood events data were studied for the 1994–2019 period. The linear trends demonstrate an increasing tendency of air temperature and precipitation. Those trends expressed increased flood occurrences, especially for the 2000s, whereas Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test reveals no significant change. The number of flood events reaches its maximum in 2011 with its peak in May. Out of 191 flood events, half of the occurrences are recorded in the flat areas and southern aspects of the mountains (22% of the country's territory). There is a certain clustering of flood events in the areas with up to 5° slopes (66% of flood events). The most flood vulnerable areas were analyzed and mapped via Geographical Information System (GIS). The GIS-based mapping shows the location of flood vulnerable areas in the central, northern parts of the country, and the coastal areas of Lake Sevan. Our methodological approach elaborates the localization of flood-prone sites. It can be used for the flood hazard assessment mapping and risk management.

Heatwaves in Southern Armenia in the context of climate change

“…In terms of climate change, being a mountainous area with arid climatic conditions, Syunik province is vulnerable (Melkonyan and Gevorgyan, 2020). During the last two decades , the average air temperature from March to August in Syunik province increased by about 1.5 C (Galstyan et al, 2020). The spatial distribution of changes in precipitation is irregular in the RA.…”

“…The spatial distribution of changes in precipitation is irregular in the RA. Over the last 80 years, the climate in Syunik province has turned arider (Gevorgyan, 2012;Galstyan et al, 2015;Galstyan et al, 2020;Melkonyan and Gevorgyan, 2020).…”

“…The negative impact of global climate change on the earth is evident everywhere, including the Republic of Armenia (Melkonyan and Gevorgyan, 2015;Zaqaryan et al, 2018). It is impossible to find any economic sector that is not affected by climate change (Melkonyan and Gevorgyan, 2020;Hovhannisyan, 2014;Galstyan et al, 2020;Khachatryan et al, 2003). The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena such as heatwave (HW) events is also an expected result of climate change.…”

Spatiotemporal variability of fall daily maximum flows in southern Quebec (Canada) from 1930 to 2018

“…It has become increasingly clear that one of the major hydrological impacts associated with current climate warming is the increase in magnitude (intensity) and frequency of floods. This hydrological change has been increasingly documented in many regions of the world (e.g., Berghuisjs et al, 2017;Collins, 2019;Dube et al, 2022;Galstyan et al, 2020;Hannaford & Marsh, 2008;Hodgkins et al, 2017Hodgkins et al, , 2019Kemter et al, 2020;Kimuli et al, 2021;Llasat et al, 2016;Mallakpour & Villarini, 2015;Mangini et al, 2018;Mao et al, 2019;Najibi & Devineni, 2018;Nka et al, 2015;Paprotny et al, 2018;Tabari, 2020;Tellman et al, 2021;Tramblay et al, 2019Tramblay et al, , 2020Wasko et al, 2020). However, in their extensive study on the spatiotemporal variability of floods across the European continent, Blöschl et al (2019) demonstrated that this increase in flood frequency and intensity has not occurred consistently over the past five decades in the continent as a whole.…”