Spatial–Temporal Changes in Land Use and Their Driving Forces in the Circum-Bohai Coastal Zone of China from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

Over the past two decades, the location and morphology of the coastline, as well as the land use/land cover (LULC) in the Circum-Bohai region in China, have undergone significant changes due to rapid industrialization and urbanization. Analyzing the temporal and spatial variation in coastal lines and LULC can provide a meaningful basis for the rational allocation of land resources. Using Landsat TM/OLI series dates from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this study applied the Linear Superposition Water Index (LSWI) and the Otsu threshold method (OTSU) algorithm to extract and analyze the coastline of the Circum-Bohai region. Additionally, the Random Forests (RF) method was employed to extract LULC information in the coastal zone. Using the geographical detector, we further explored the influence of social and economic factors, as well as natural factors, on spatial differentiation mechanisms of LULC change in the Circum-Bohai. Our results show that between 2000 and 2020, the Circum-Bohai coastline generally expanded towards the ocean by a total of 1062.99 km. The highest rate of change occurred during 2010 to 2015, and human activities were the primary cause of most of the changes, with the exception of the Yellow River Delta, where natural factors were dominant. The main types of LULC in the study area from 2000 to 2020 were farmland and construction land. The area of farmland proportion decreased by 1.75%, while the area of construction land proportion increased from 16.73% to 29.54%. Our findings indicate that the degree of land use in the Circum-Bohai is deepening. Based on our factor detection analysis, the added value of the secondary industry was the most critical influencing factor on LULC. Furthermore, the combined effect of the added value of the secondary industry and gross domestic product (GDP) has a significant driving impact on LULC. These findings can provide reference and data support for the sustainable development and comprehensive management of land resources. The relevant departments can use these results to prompt corresponding policies for the rational allocation of land resources.