Spatial risk assessment of eastern monarch butterfly road mortality during autumn migration within the southern corridor

Kantola, Tuula; Tracy, James L.; Baum, Kristen A.; Quinn, Michael A.; Coulson, Robert N.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.01.008

Cited by 56 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…While the modeling results of Inamine et al (2016) and Ries et al (2015) help form the basis of a migratory failure hypothesis (Agrawal and Inamine, 2018), other modeling efforts indicate loss of milkweed in the summer breeding range as the primary stressor, due to either Roundup Ready crops (e.g., Pleasants and Oberhauser, 2013;Flockhart et al, 2015) or modern agricultural practices since the 1950's (Boyle et al, 2019; but see Ries et al, 2019;Wepperich, 2019). Collectively, these models highlight uncertainty in data used to develop and evaluate models (e.g., the ability of current monitoring designs to quantify monarch migratory patterns across the eastern United States), as well as uncertainty in the independent or interacting roles of reduced nectar sources (Brower et al, 2015), road side mortality (Kantola et al, 2019), spatial-temporal climatic variability (Zalucki and Rochester, 2004), and reduced milkweed (Lemoine, 2015), in monarch population trends.…”

Section: Statistical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…5. Kantola et al (2019) estimated that 3.6 and 1.1 million monarchs were killed along roads in Oklahoma and Texas during the 2016 and 2017 fall migrations, respectively. These mortality rates are approximately 4% and 2% of the overwintering population in Mexico in those years.…”

Section: Causes Of Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These mortality rates are approximately 4% and 2% of the overwintering population in Mexico in those years. Kantola et al (2019) estimate the population declined on average 7% each year so a 2-4% roadside mortality rate could be an important part of the annual decline. These authors also note that a high level of roadkill could also be occurring in Mexico.…”

Section: Causes Of Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Modeling in Monarch Butterfly Research and Conservation

Grant

Bradbury

2019

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Models are an integral part of the scientific endeavor, whether they be conceptual, mathematical, statistical, or simulation models. Models of appropriate complexity facilitate comprehension and improve understanding of the variables driving system processes. In the context of conservation planning decision-making or research efforts, a useful model can aid interpretation and avoid overfitting by including only essential elements. Models can serve two related, but different purposes: understanding and prediction of future system behavior. Predictive models can require several iterations of refinement and empirical data gathering to be useful for conservation planning. Models with less predictive ability can be used to enhance understanding of system function and generate hypotheses for empirical evaluation. Modeling monarch butterfly systems, whether it be landscape-scale movement in breeding habitats, migratory behavior, or population dynamics at monthly or yearly timeframes, is challenging because the systems encompass complex spatial and temporal interactions across nested scales that are difficult, if not impossible, to empirically observe or comprehend without simplification. We review mathematical, statistical, and simulation models that have provided insights into monarch butterfly systems. Mathematical models have provided understanding of underlying processes that may be driving monarch systems. Statistical models have provided understanding of patterns in empirical data, which may represent underlying mechanisms. Simulations models have provided understanding of mechanisms driving systems and provide the potential to link mechanisms with data to build more predictive models. As an example, recently published agent-based models of non-migratory eastern North American monarch butterfly movement and egg-laying may provide the means to explore how different spatial patterns of habitat, habitat quality, and the interaction of stressors can influence future adult recruitment. The migratory process, however, has not been addressed with agent-based modeling. Using western monarch migration as an example, we describe how modeling could be used to provide insights into migratory dynamics. Future integration of migratory models with non-migratory and population dynamics models may provide better understanding and ultimately prediction of monarch butterfly movement and population dynamics at a continental scale.

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Section: Statistical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Causes Of Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Causes Of Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Modeling in Monarch Butterfly Research and Conservation

Grant

Bradbury

2019

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…However, planting non-native species, the usage of pesticides and herbicides, as well as mowing, decrease pollinator habitat suitability [28]. Monarchs experience vehicle mortality when crossing roads [39]; however, the mortality rates are negligible when compared to the benefits of natural vegetation on roadsides [28].…”

Section: Background On the Monarchs' Migratory Habitatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges for Monitoring the Extent and Land Use/Cover Changes in Monarch Butterflies’ Migratory Habitat across the United States and Mexico

Moreno-Sánchez

Raines

Diffendorfer

et al. 2019

Land

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This paper presents a synopsis of the challenges and limitations presented by existing and emerging land use/land cover (LULC) digital data sets when used to analyze the extent, habitat quality, and LULC changes of the monarch (Danaus plexippus) migratory habitat across the United States of America (US) and Mexico. First, the characteristics, state of the knowledge, and issues related to this habitat are presented. Then, the characteristics of the existing and emerging LULC digital data sets with global or cross-border coverage are listed, followed by the data sets that cover only the US or Mexico. Later, we discuss the challenges for determining the extent, habitat quality, and LULC changes in the monarchs’ migratory habitat when using these LULC data sets in conjunction with the current state of the knowledge of the monarchs’ ecology, behavior, and foraging/roosting plants used during their migration. We point to approaches to address some of these challenges, which can be categorized into: (a) LULC data set characteristics and availability; (b) availability of ancillary land management information; (c) ability to construct accurate forage suitability indices for their migration habitat; and (d) level of knowledge of the ecological and behavioral patterns of the monarchs during their journey.

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“…The western population faces additional threats such as loss of overwintering or breeding habitat from climate-related fire and drought (Griffiths and Villablanca, 2015;Pelton et al, 2016). Furthermore, both populations face the threats of road kill mortality (Kantola et al, 2019;Mora Alvarez et al, 2019), diseases, parasitism, and predation (Altizer and de Roode, 2015;Oberhauser et al, 2015). Each of these threats contributes to the current and future resiliency of eastern and western monarch populations through population-specific responses that the SSA endeavors to make explicit.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%