A Method to Project Future Impacts From Threats and Conservation on the Probability of Extinction for North American Migratory Monarch (Danaus plexippus) Populations

Voorhies, Kristen J.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Nail, Kelly R.; Fidino, Mason

doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00384

Cited by 12 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Data and field‐scale mortality estimates from the present study can augment expert opinion recently used to elucidate the potential impact of insecticide use on recovery of the monarch butterfly (Voorhies et al 2019). We estimated high monarch larval mortality rates 0 to 15 m downwind of maize and soybean fields treated with foliar insecticide applications; however, these findings are not relevant for all monarch habitat that is in close proximity to crop fields.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Assessing Field‐Scale Risks of Foliar Insecticide Applications to Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus) Larvae

Krishnan

Zhang

Bidne³

et al. 2020

Enviro Toxic and Chemistry

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Establishment and maintenance of milkweed plants (Asclepias spp.) in agricultural landscapes of the north central United States are needed to reverse the decline of North America's eastern monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population. Because of a lack of toxicity data, it is unclear how insecticide use may reduce monarch productivity when milkweed habitat is placed near maize and soybean fields. To assess the potential effects of foliar insecticides, acute cuticular and dietary toxicity of 5 representative active ingredients were determined: beta‐cyfluthrin (pyrethroid), chlorantraniliprole (anthranilic diamide), chlorpyrifos (organophosphate), and imidacloprid and thiamethoxam (neonicotinoids). Cuticular median lethal dose values for first instars ranged from 9.2 × 10–3 to 79 μg/g larvae for beta‐cyfluthrin and chlorpyrifos, respectively. Dietary median lethal concentration values for second instars ranged from 8.3 × 10–3 to 8.4 μg/g milkweed leaf for chlorantraniliprole and chlorpyrifos, respectively. To estimate larval mortality rates downwind from treated fields, modeled insecticide exposures to larvae and milkweed leaves were compared to dose–response curves obtained from bioassays with first‐, second‐, third‐, and fifth‐instar larvae. For aerial applications to manage soybean aphids, mortality rates at 60 m downwind were highest for beta‐cyfluthrin and chlorantraniliprole following cuticular and dietary exposure, respectively, and lowest for thiamethoxam. To estimate landscape‐scale risks, field‐scale mortality rates must be considered in the context of spatial and temporal patterns of insecticide use. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:923–941. © 2020 SETAC

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Assessing Field‐Scale Risks of Foliar Insecticide Applications to Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus) Larvae

Krishnan

Zhang

Bidne³

et al. 2020

Enviro Toxic and Chemistry

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“…Our overall approach took advantage of existing data collected by the States and other management partners within a widely accepted monitoring framework and therefore did not rely on expert elicitation or large-scale extrapolations from highly detailed but small-scale studies and data sets (e.g. McGowan et al 2017, Voorhies et al 2019. Other analyses and predictive approaches may have also addressed the information needs and supported the decision process.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These spatial subdivisions often, though not necessarily, follow dividing lines for representation units for the species and there is no specific guidance on how to subdivide a species' range into spatial subunits (Smith et al 2018). We de termined that geographical and ecological differences across the range were aspects of the subspecies' biology that needed to be represented (Smith et al 2018, USFWS 2018. Using a separate encounter-only point similarity analysis, we divided the range into 7 analysis units that served as representation units under the 3 Rs framework (USFWS 2018).…”

Section: Study Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The document contains a de scription of the biology and ecological needs of the species, an assessment of current availability of needed resources and of populations in the wild (i.e. current status assessment), and predictions on future status of populations and resources (McGowan et al 2017, Smith et al 2018, Voorhies et al 2019. The SSA framework uses the concepts of 'representation', 'resiliency', and 'redundancy' (the '3 Rs') as the lens through which status is evaluated, but each SSA can define the 3 Rs using different metrics that suit the species and available data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking monitoring and data analysis to predictions and decisions for the range-wide eastern black rail status assessment

McGowan

Angeli²,

Beisler³

et al. 2020

Endang. Species. Res.

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The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has initiated a re-envisioned approach for providing decision makers with the best available science and synthesis of that information, called the Species Status Assessment (SSA), for endangered species decision making. The SSA report is a descriptive document that provides decision makers with an assessment of the current and predicted future status of a species. These analyses support all manner of decisions under the US Endangered Species Act, such as listing, reclassification, and recovery planning. Novel scientific analysis and predictive modeling in SSAs could be an important part of rooting conservation decisions in current data and cutting edge analytical and modeling techniques. Here, we describe a novel analysis of available data to assess the current condition of eastern black rail Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis across its range in a dynamic occupancy analysis. We used the results of the analysis to develop a site occupancy projection model where the model parameters (initial occupancy, site persistence, colonization) were linked to environmental covariates, such as land management and land cover change (sea-level rise, development, etc.). We used the projection model to predict future status under multiple sea-level rise and habitat management scenarios. Occupancy probability and site colonization were low in all analysis units, and site persistence was also low, suggesting low resiliency and redundancy currently. Extinction probability was high for all analysis units in all simulated scenarios except one with significant effort to preserve existing habitat, suggesting low future resiliency and redundancy. With the results of these data analyses and predictive models, the USFWS concluded that protections of the Endangered Species Act were warranted for this subspecies.

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“…In addition, there has been little monitoring of the current status of these geographic units to inform the starting conditions for a population projection model. In place of observationally derived empirical models that predict future species condition, expert opinion and professional judgment are appropriate and scientifically supported approaches (Morgan, 2014) often used to fill in the gaps in SSAs (e.g., Voorhies, Szymanski, Nail, & Fidino, 2019). Expert judgment can be obtained through formal elicitation procedures (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), 2011; Drescher et al, 2013; Morgan, 2014, Fleishman, Burgman, Runge, Schick, & Kraus, 2016) in which experts are selected based on a screening process, are prepped for the elicitation, and are facilitated through the elicitation process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying expert elicitation of viability and persistence to a lynx species status assessment

Cummings

Parkin

Zelenak

et al. 2020

Conservat Sci and Prac

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In 2015, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service initiated a review of the status of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in the contiguous United States. Available research and monitoring, while substantial, lacked information on the demographic rates, abundance, and trends necessary to complete a full viability assessment. Therefore, alternative sources of information were needed to inform the species status assessment. We designed and conducted an expert elicitation to capture the knowledge, professional judgments, and opinions of lynx experts to assess the status of, and the drivers influencing, these lynx populations. We elicited the likelihood and level of uncertainty regarding future persistence over several time frames (at years 2025, 2050, and 2100). The elicitation revealed experts' concerns that expected climate-driven losses in habitat quality, quantity, and related factors will likely result in declines. Experts expect resident populations of lynx will persist in all five currently occupied geographic units in 2025; in 4 or 5 of the units at 2050; and in 2 or 3 units at 2100. Experts expressed a high level of uncertainty regarding the rate and extent of decline due to projected climate warming and corresponding effects to these lynx populations. In the absence of adequate monitoring data, this type of expert elicitation is a useful method to aid classification decisions, such as providing the scientific information the Service relied upon to complete the November 5, 2017 5-year review which recommended that the lynx distinct population segment be removed from the list of threatened and endangered species.

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A Method to Project Future Impacts From Threats and Conservation on the Probability of Extinction for North American Migratory Monarch (Danaus plexippus) Populations

Cited by 12 publications

References 27 publications

Assessing Field‐Scale Risks of Foliar Insecticide Applications to Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus) Larvae

Assessing Field‐Scale Risks of Foliar Insecticide Applications to Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus) Larvae

Linking monitoring and data analysis to predictions and decisions for the range-wide eastern black rail status assessment

Applying expert elicitation of viability and persistence to a lynx species status assessment

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