Applying expert elicitation of viability and persistence to a lynx species status assessment

Cummings, Jonathan; Parkin, Mary J.; Zelenak, Jim; Bell, Heather; Broderdorp, Kurt; Holt, Bryon; McCollough, Mark; Smith, Tamara A.

doi:10.1111/csp2.284

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Adams‐Hosking et al, 2016), distributional changes (e.g. Cummings et al, 2020) and response to multiple drivers of ecosystem change (e.g. Legge et al, 2022; Singh et al, 2017).…”

Section: Ideacology Use In Conservation and Natural Resource Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

IDEAcology: An interface to streamline and facilitate efficient, rigorous expert elicitation in ecology

Courtney Jones,

Geange,

Hanea

et al. 2023

Methods Ecol Evol

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Here, we demonstrate how IDEAcology aids in preparing for and implementing a structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol, an iterative quantitative expert elicitation framework. Expert judgement is used to inform decision‐making on environmental assessment and management when imminent decisions are required, and quantitative data are absent or uninformative. Structured elicitation protocols can help improve the final judgements derived from experts, but they can also be administratively heavy and time‐consuming, requiring manual collation of experts' estimates and rationales, construction and dissemination of summary plots for discussion and collating final estimates post‐discussion. These challenges highlight the need for a centralised portal that enables synchronous access by all contributors, real‐time structured facilitation of discussion, whether in person or online, and streamlined data management. To meet this need, we developed the IDEAcology interface ( www.ideacology.com) to support data collation, summary, interactions and ultimately the deployment of structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. The IDEAcology interface is designed to be a central portal for scientists and practitioners to easily implement structured expert elicitation projects, while also facilitating data management by providing a reliable and efficient way for elicitation managers to design and run an elicitation, and for experts to input, visualise and cross‐examine estimates. The key advantages that IDEAcology provides include an easy‐to‐use interface with synchronous access to a single platform, reducing logistic difficulties, facilitating transparent discussion, improving the accuracy of estimates, enabling fast and efficient reporting by providing analysis‐ready data outputs and lastly, flexibility in the types of elicitation questions that can be accommodated in the interface.

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“…Adams‐Hosking et al, 2016), distributional changes (e.g. Cummings et al, 2020) and response to multiple drivers of ecosystem change (e.g. Legge et al, 2022; Singh et al, 2017).…”

Section: Ideacology Use In Conservation and Natural Resource Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

IDEAcology: An interface to streamline and facilitate efficient, rigorous expert elicitation in ecology

Courtney Jones,

Geange,

Hanea

et al. 2023

Methods Ecol Evol

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“…The lynx once occurred in 24 of the United States (McKelvey, 2000) and currently occurs in 7 (US Fish & Wildlife Service, 2017). The lynx is designated as "threatened" in the contiguous United States (US Fish & Wildlife Service, 2000), although its protection status is being debated and it might be removed from the list of endangered species in the United States (Cummings et al 2020). In Canada, the lynx occupies 95% of its historic range (Poole, 2003).…”

Section: Climate Change Will Also Open Formerly Inhospitable Habitatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seven decades of southern range dynamics of Canada lynx

Marrotte

Bowman

2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Over the past century, the range of many species has changed, often attributed to climate change and land cover modification (Laliberte & Ripple, 2004;Thomas, 2010;Walther et al. 2002). A species can respond to environmental changes by exploiting resources at the extremities of its niche (Sexton et al. 2017), by phenotypic plasticity (Nicotra et al. 2010;Valladares et al. 2014) or by adaptation (Williams et al. 2008). However, the rate at which current conditions are changing might make adaptation impossible for many species because the process of natural selection is too slow (Davis & Shaw, 2001). Consequently, species will have to track their bioclimatic niche (Visser, 2008) and their ability to do so will influence their persistence (Bell & Gonzalez, 2011;Schloss et al. 2012;Travis et al. 2013).Terrestrial species that have ranges near the poles will be limited in their ability to track climate because they are limited by the availability of space to move to higher latitudes (Kerr & Packer, 1998).Therefore, many unique cold adapted species will eventually perish unless they have sufficient phenotypic plasticity or somehow adapt to warmer conditions and to new biotic interactions. Understanding how and why the warmer range edge of cold adapted species has

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Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Moore¹,

Martin

Waddle

et al. 2022

Journal of Environmental Management

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Applying expert elicitation of viability and persistence to a lynx species status assessment

Cited by 3 publications

References 15 publications

IDEAcology: An interface to streamline and facilitate efficient, rigorous expert elicitation in ecology

IDEAcology: An interface to streamline and facilitate efficient, rigorous expert elicitation in ecology

Seven decades of southern range dynamics of Canada lynx

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

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